摘要
桫椤(Alsophila spinulosa)是第三纪早期冰川的孑遗植物和世界上最古老的活化石之一,对研究古气候和物种变迁以及地理区系变化等具有重要的参考价值。基于桫椤在中国地区的111个有效分布点和10个环境因子,利用MaxEnt模型和ArcGIS软件对气候变化背景下桫椤在中国的潜在地理分布进行了预测,同时综合环境因子贡献率和刀切法检验评估了制约现代气候条件下桫椤潜在地理分布的重要因子。本研究还采用了响应曲线来确定环境因子的适宜值,进一步预测了气候变化背景下桫椤的潜在地理分布区和面积。结果表明:MaxEnt模型的预测准确度高,受试者工作曲线面积(AUC值)达0.959;现代气候条件下桫椤的潜在适宜生境面积为160.15×10^(4)km^(2),主要位于中国的南部和东南部地区;影响桫椤潜在地理分布的主要环境因子为气温因子(平均气温日较差和最干季平均温度)、降水因子(最干季降水量)和地形因子(坡度),其中最干季降水量是影响桫椤潜在地理分布的关键因子;在未来气候变化情景下,桫椤的总适宜生境面积增加,高适宜生境和中适宜生境面积减少,低适宜生境面积增加,桫椤的高适宜生境重心向西北方向和高纬度地区转移。研究结果将为桫椤的科学管理和资源保护提供理论依据。
Alsophila spinulosa,a relict plant species of early Tertiary glaciers and one of the oldest living fossils in the world,is of great value for understanding changes in paleoclimate,species evolution,and geographic flora.Based on 111 effective distribution records of A.spinulosa in China and 10 environmental variables,the MaxEnt model and ArcGIS software were used to predict the potential geographic distribution of A.spinulosa.The relative contribution of comprehensive environmental variables and jackknife method were used to assess the essential factors that restrict the potential geographic distribution of A.spinulosa.Meanwhile,the response curve was constructed to determine the appropriate values of environmental variables as well as the potential geographic distribution location and area of A.spinulosa.Our results showed that the prediction accuracy of the MaxEnt model was high,with the receiver operating curve area(AUC value)reaching 0.959.The total suitable habitat area for the potential geographic distribution of A.spinulosa was 160.15×10^(4)km^(2),mainly located in southern and southeastern China.The main environmental factors affecting the potential geographic distribution of A.spinulosa were temperature factor(mean temperature difference per day and mean temperature of the driest season),precipitation factor(precipitation of the driest season),and topographic factor(slope),with precipitation in the driest season as the most essential one.Under future climate change scenarios,the total area of suitable habitat will increase,the area of highly and moderately suitable habitats will decrease,and the area of lowly suitable habitats will increase.The center of gravity in the highly suitable habitat of A.spinulosa will shift to the northwest and high-latitude regions.Our results provide a theoretical basis for the management and resource protection of A.spinulosa.
作者
张华
赵浩翔
徐存刚
ZHANG Hua;ZHAO Hao-xiang;XU Cun-gang(College of Geography and Environ-mental Science,Northwest Normal University,Lanzhou 730070,China)
出处
《生态学杂志》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2021年第4期968-979,共12页
Chinese Journal of Ecology
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(41461011)
兰州市人才创新创业项目(2019-RC-105)资助。
关键词
桫椤
气候变化情景
MaxEnt模型
环境因子
潜在地理分布
Alsophila spinulosa
climate change scenario
MaxEnt model
environmental variable
potential geographical distribution
