摘要
在测算和分析2005—2018年广西农业碳排放量的基础上,采用全局空间自相关法分析了农业碳排放的空间集聚特征,并运用协整理论与误差修正模型探究了农业经济增长与农业碳排放的关系。结果表明:①2005—2018年广西农业碳排放量呈现"上升—下降"两阶段变化特征。②农业碳排放量总量具有较强的空间正相关性,形成了以崇左、来宾、贵港为中心的高水平集聚区和以百色、河池等地为中心的低水平集聚区。③农业经济增长与农膜、灌溉、农业机械总动力和农业碳排放强度之间存在长期稳定关系。未来,广西应进一步协调经济增长与农业碳排放之间的关系,因地制宜制定农业减排政策,转变农业发展方式,提高农资利用效率。
Based on the calculation and analysis of agricultural carbon emissions in Guangxi from 2005 to 2018,this paper used the global spatial autocorrelation method to analyze the spatial agglomeration characteristics of agricultural carbon emissions,and used the cointegration theory and error correction model to explore the relationship between agricultural economic growth and agricultural carbon emissions in Guangxi.The results showed that:①From 2005 to 2018,Guangxi’s agricultural carbon emissions showed a two-stage change trend of"up-decline".②There was a strong spatial positive correlation between Guangxi’s agricultural carbon emissions and intensity space,which formed a high-level agglomeration area with Chongzuo,Laibin and Guigang,and a low-level agglomeration area with Baise and Hechi as the center.③There was a long-term stable relationship between Guangxi’s agricultural economic growth and agricultural film,irrigation,total power of agricultural machinery and agricultural carbon emission intensity.In the future,we should further coordinate the relationship between economic growth and agricultural carbon emissions,formulate agricultural emission reduction policies according to local conditions,change the mode of agricultural development,and improve the utilization efficiency of agricultural materials.
作者
旷爱萍
胡超
KUANG Ai-ping;HU Chao(School of Marxism,Guangxi Normal University,Guilin 541006,China)
出处
《资源开发与市场》
CAS
北大核心
2021年第6期663-669,共7页
Resource Development & Market
基金
国家社会科学基金项目(编号:16BZX033)
广西文科中心项目(编号:FW2014028)
广西研究生教育创新计划项目(编号:XYCSR2020028)。
关键词
农业碳排放
空间自相关
协整分析
广西
agricultural carbon emissions
spatial autocorrelation
cointegration analysis
Guangxi
