摘要
针对分布式光伏电站发电量预测与计算问题,在分析传统方法误差产生和精度不高原因基础上,通过引入具有方位角的倾斜面太阳辐照量,分析目标电站得到的包含弱光损失、温度损失等9个因素的系统设计综合效率系数,提出一种新型分布式光伏电站预测发电量的计算方法,计算到电站的月总或年总预测发电量。实验结果表明,该文所提方法能够更为准确计算出目标电站的预测发电量,提高了预测精度。在设计电站预研、投资回报估算和智能运维系统的故障诊断等方面具有良好的工程应用前景。
Aiming at the prediction and calculation of distributed photovoltaic power station,based on the analysis of the causes of inaccuracies of traditional methods,this paper introduces the solar irradiation on inclined plane with azimuth angle,and analyses the synthetical effect of the system design including 9 factors including weak light loss and temperature loss obtained by analyzing the target power station.Above all,a new method for calculating the predicted power of distributed photovoltaic power plants is proposed,which can calculate the total monthly or annual predicted power of power plants.The experimental results show that the new method can more accurately calculate the predicted power of the target power station and improve the prediction accuracy.It has good application prospects in the design of power plant pre-research,investment return estimation and fault diagnosis of intelligent operation and maintenance system.
作者
叶洪吉
卫东
郭倩
蔡慧
徐明垦
方洛迪
Ye Hongji;Wei Dong;Guo Qian;Cai Hui;Xu Mingken;Fang Luodi(College of Mechanical and Electrical Engineering,China Jiliang University,Hangzhou 310018,China)
出处
《太阳能学报》
EI
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2021年第4期253-259,共7页
Acta Energiae Solaris Sinica
基金
国家重点研发计划(2017YFF0210702)
浙江省基础公益研究计划(LGG18E070004
LGF18F020017
LGG20E070003)。
关键词
分布式光伏电站
发电量
预测分析
具有方位角的倾斜面太阳辐照量
系统设计综合效率系数
distributed PV power station
power generation
forecasting analysis
solar irradiation on inclined plane with azimuth angle
comprehensive efficiency coefficient of system design
