摘要
股票市场是实体经济的"晴雨表",央行实施货币政策调控经济必然会影响到股票价格。论文研究货币政策中的货币供应量M2对股票市场中中小板指数的影响,运用向量自回归(VAR)模型,选用2007年1月至2020年9月的月度数据,发现货币供应量M2对中小板指数有一定的正向影响,并且存在长期均衡关系,中小企业板相较整个股市而言对货币供应量反应更大,但仍不明显。投资者可以短期内将货币供应量变动作为投资参考消息,政府则需要警惕股票市场的逐利性对货币政策效果的削弱影响。
The stock market is the"barometer"of the real economy.The implementation of monetary policy by the People's Bank of China will inevitably affect the stock price.This paper studies the influence of money supply M2 in monetary policy on the small and medium board index in the stock market.Using the vector autoregression(VAR)model and using the monthly data from January 2007 to September 2020,it finds that money supply M2 has a certain positive influence on the small and medium board index,and there is a long-term equilibrium relationship.The small and medium-sized enterprises board is more responsive to money supply than the stock market as a whole,but it is still not obvious.Investors can take the change of money supply as the reference information for investment in the short term,while the government needs to be alert to the weakening influence of profit-driven stock market on the effect of monetary policy.
作者
裴金成
PEI Jin-cheng(Hunan University,Changsha 410082,China)
出处
《中小企业管理与科技》
2021年第16期118-119,共2页
Management & Technology of SME
关键词
货币供应量
中小板指数
VAR模型
格兰杰因果
脉冲响应分析
money supply
small and medium board index
VAR model
Granger causality
impulse response analysis
