摘要
[目的/意义]科学分析当前人工智能技术在核战略情报收集、分析与预测中的作用,为我国有效应对美战略侦察手段,维护核安全与全球战略稳定提供基本参考。[方法/过程]通过对当前美国智能化情报手段应用情况进行梳理,并结合在应用过程中暴露的问题,分析智能化情报手段对大国核战略稳定的深层影响,着重对易受忽视的消极作用进行细致阐释,据此提出我国的应对措施。[结果/结论]人工智能在一国情报、侦察、监视系统的应用将威胁他国二次核打击力量的生存能力,破坏危机稳定性。而且人工智能固有的黑箱问题使智能情报系统在可靠性和稳定性上存在缺陷,在技术还不够成熟的情况下,很可能增加虚警与误判的可能性,进一步增加智能化情报手段破坏战略稳定的风险。
[Purpose/Significance]Scientific analysis of the key role of current artificial intelligence technology in nuclear strategic intelligence collection,analysis and prediction,can provide a basic reference for China to effectively respond to US strategic reconnaissance methods and maintain nuclear security and strategic stability.[Method/Process]Through a review of the current use of intelligent intelligence in the United States,combined with the problems revealed in the process,we analyse the profound impact of intelligent intelligence on the strategic stability of major powers,focusing on the negative effects that are easily overlooked,and come up with a few thoughts on our response measures.[Result/Conclusion]The improved application of AI-driven intelligence,reconnaissance and surveillance systems in one country will threaten the survivability of another country's second nuclear strike force,thus destroy the crisis stability.And the black-box problem of technical limitations inherent in artificial intelligence makes intelligent intelligence systems flawed in terms of reliability and stability,while the technology is not yet mature enough,it is likely to increase the likelihood of false alarms and miscalculations,this further increases the risk of intelligent intelligence means destabilizing the strategic stability.
作者
陈曦
葛腾飞
宋道青
Chen Xi;Ge Tengfei;Song Daoqing(International Studies College,National University of Defense Technology,Nanjing 210039)
出处
《情报杂志》
CSSCI
北大核心
2021年第6期10-16,9,共8页
Journal of Intelligence
基金
国家社会科学基金重大项目“海上丝绸之路地缘安全及其风险管控研究”(编号:18ZDA130)研究成果之一。
关键词
人工智能
战略稳定
智能情报系统
核威慑
军事情报
算法战
artificial intelligence
strategic stability
intelligent intelligence system
nuclear deterrence
military intelligence
algorithmic warfare
