摘要
对1984-2017年广西入境旅游时间序列数据进行梳理,剔除价格水平变动等因素的影响,运用Eviews10.0对旅游外汇收入与地区生产总值进行了协整检验、ECM模型分析、Granger因果检验。结果表明:旅游外汇收入与地区生产总值之间存在长期协整关系;旅游外汇收入每增加1%,地区生产总值则增加约0.82%;ECM模型显示,当其短期波动偏离长期均衡时,系统将以0.016815的调节力度使其恢复到均衡状态;地区生产总值是入境旅游外汇收入的格兰杰原因。最后根据实证结果,提出了相关建议。
Combing the time series data of inbound tourism in Guangxi from 1984 to 2017,excluding the influence of price level changes and other factors,Eviews10.0 is used to carry out cointegration test,ECM model analysis and Granger causality test on tourism foreign exchange earnings and regional gross domestic product(GDP).The results show that there is a long-term cointegration relationship between tourism foreign exchange earnings and regional GDP;for every 1%increase in tourism foreign exchange earnings,the regional GDP increases by about 0.82%.When its short-term fluctuation deviates from the long-term equilibrium,the system will return it to equilibrium with 0.016815 adjustment;GDP is the Granger cause of inbound tourism foreign exchange earnings.Finally,according to the empirical results,the relevant suggestions are put forward.
作者
许克强
罗妹梅
XU Ke-qiang;LUO Mei-mei(School of Tourismand Landscape Architecture,Guilin University of Technology,Guilin 541006,China)
出处
《遵义师范学院学报》
2021年第3期73-76,共4页
Journal of Zunyi Normal University
基金
广西中青年教师基础能力提升项目“供给侧改革背景下广西入境旅游供需结构性耦合研究”(2018KY0221)。
