摘要
本文借鉴霍华德·马克斯的行业周期研究方法,建构新冠疫情冲击下对国际财产保险和再保险行业影响的"基本面""市场面""心理面"三维框架,考察三者间相互影响、相互制约的复杂联系,找寻市场变化的驱动因素;同时通过对市场表现的历史回溯,找寻周期性规律,进而对后疫情时代的市场趋势做出预测。分析发现,国际财产保险、再保险市场在重大损失事件冲击下呈现费率上涨、条件收紧的"硬市场"特征,进入新的周期。后疫情时期,短期驱动市场波动的因素具有延续性,长期价格则会在各种因素驱动下回归稳定增长。最后,结合新冠疫情对国际市场影响,分析市场化机制对于中国保险业的可借鉴之处,本文认为,后疫情时期的中国保险业应对大规模复杂系统性风险给予高度重视,在风险管理方面着力于防范系统性巨灾风险累积;在经营模式方面更加重视优化盈利模式;在风险保障方面需注重发展非物质损失险种,深化保险供给侧改革;同时,应不断强化技术支撑,提升我国保险行业管理和应对重大巨灾风险的能力。
Drawing on Howard Marks′industry cycle research methods,this paper studied the impact of COVID-19 with the three dimensional framework:"market fundamental"(specific events,can be simplified as major loss events),"market performance"(reflected in price and transaction volume in the short-term,manifested in the characteristics of industry development in the long-term),and"market expectation"(the expectations and assumptions of market participants in response to market fundamentals and market performances).By examining the complex mutual impacts and restraints among the three factors,this paper attempted to identify the variables that drove market fluctuations,and moreover,through the historical retrospective review of the market performance,this paper analyzed the cyclical laws of the international insurance and reinsurance markets and made market trend forecast in the post-pandemic era.The analysis shows that the international insurance and reinsurance markets exhibits"hard market"features of rising premium rate and tightened conditions under the impacts of major loss events,thus being ushered into a new cycle.In the post-pandemic era,short-term market driver factors show protracted effects,but driven by various factors,long-term prices will return to stable increase.Finally,considering COVID-19′s impacts on the international markets,the paper analyzed the vale of marketization mechanisms to the Chinese insurance industry.The paper holds that,in the post-pandemic era,in the respect of risk management,China′s insurance market should pay high attention to the quick response to large-scale and complicated systemic risks,specifically guarding against the accumulation of catastrophes,lay emphasis on optimizing profit-making models in the respect of operational models,promote the development of non-material loss insurance products and deepen supply side reform in the respect of protection against risks,and concurrently,continuously strengthen technology support and enhance the insurance industry′s capability on managing and responding to major catastrophe risks.
作者
初苗苗
党予彤
CHU Miao-miao;DANG Yu-tong
出处
《保险研究》
CSSCI
北大核心
2021年第4期3-23,共21页
Insurance Studies
关键词
新冠疫情
国际财产保险和再保险市场
行业周期
保险发展
COVID-19 pandemic
international P&C(Re)insurance market
industry cycle
insurance industry development
