摘要
新冠肺炎疫情暴发一年多以来,国际国内形势仍面临极大不确定性。疫情显著降低了短期排放水平,但是经济恢复政策和疫情发展形势的不确定使得对未来经济发展和碳排放的判断变得复杂,碳排放是否会反弹对实现《巴黎协定》目标造成挑战,已经投入运行的全国碳市场能多大程度发挥政策效果等问题值得关注。本文首先定量评估了疫情对经济和环境的短期和长期的影响,基于此分析疫情后全国碳市场政策的实施效果。结果显示:疫情造成中国经济活动以及碳排放短期显著下降,2020年中国全年的GDP增长较基准情景下降3.84%,能源消费和碳排放分别较基准情景下降4.47%和5.12%。但是,接下来的十年内,GDP会逐渐恢复至基准情景,累计碳排放较基准情景增加0.06%。在没有其他气候政策干预的情况下,疫情带来的短期减排效应不足以保障中国各项气候目标的实现,落实碳市场政策十分必要。疫情之后启动全国碳市场,可以促进投资、减少能源使用和碳排放,到2030年,能源消费将下降7.44%,碳排放下降10.49%,碳价为229.73元/t。国外疫情若在2021年还不能得到控制,将会继续影响中国的对外贸易,使得中国GDP损失略有提高,但不会改变国内疫情之后经济恢复的大趋势。
Since the outbreak of COVID-19,the international and domestic situation is still facing great uncertainty.COVID-19 has significantly reduced short-term emissions levels,but the increased uncertainty in the economic recovery policy and the virus spread abroad has made it more complicated to forecast future economic development and carbon emissions.Questions such as whether carbon emissions will rebound have pose a challenge to achieving the goals of the Paris Agreement,the effectiveness of the national carbon market are worthy of attention.This paper firstly quantitatively assesses the short-term and long-term impacts of the COVID-19 on the economy and environment,and then assesses the effects of the national carbon market policy after the COVID-19.The results show that the COVID-19 has caused a significant short-term decline in China’s economic activities and carbon emissions.In 2020,China’s annual GDP growth will be 3.84%lower than the baseline scenario,energy consumptions and carbon emissions will fall by 4.47%and 5.12%respectively compared with baseline scenario.However,in the next ten years,GDP will gradually return to the baseline scenario,and cumulative carbon emissions will increase by 0.06%compared with the baseline scenario.In the absence of other climate policy interventions,the short-term emission reduction effects brought by the COVID-19 will not be sufficient to ensure the realization of China’s climate goals,and it is necessary to implement the carbon trading policy.The operation of the national carbon market after the COVID-19 can promote investment and reduce energy use and carbon emissions.By 2030,energy consumption will drop by 7.44%,carbon emissions will drop by 10.49%,and the carbon price will be 229.73 yuan/ton.If the COVID-19 is not under control in 2021,it will continue to affect China’s foreign trade and cause a slight increase in China’s GDP loss,but it will not change the trend of Chinese economic recovery after the COVID-19.
作者
唐葆君
吉嫦婧
王翔宇
陈俊宇
李德华
TANG Baojun;JI Changjing;WANG Xiangyu;CHEN Junyu;LI Dehua(Center for Energy and Environmental Policy Research,Beijing Institute of Technology,Beijing 100081,China;School of Management and Economics,Beijing Institute of Technology,Beijing 100081,China;Beijing Key Lab of Energy Economics and Environmental Management,Beijing 100081,China;Sustainable Development Research Institute for Economy and Society of Beijing,Beijing 100081,China;Collaborative Innovation Center of Electric Vehicles in Beijing,Beijing 100081,China)
出处
《中国环境管理》
CSSCI
2021年第3期19-27,共9页
Chinese Journal of Environmental Management
基金
国家自然科学基金资助项目(71934004,71573013,71521002,71642004)
北京市自然科学基金资助项目(9152014)
北京创新基地培育与发展专项(Z171100002217023)
国家重点研发计划项目资助(2016YFA0602603)
关键词
新冠肺炎疫情
经济影响
全国碳市场
碳排放
COVID-19
economic impact
national carbon market
carbon emissions
