摘要
选取2018年夏季邵阳地区的17个雷暴单体和9个非雷暴单体,分析了单体30 dBz、35 dBz和40 dBz回波顶高及0℃、-10℃和-20℃层超过30 dBz、35 dBz和40 dBz的回波面积与闪电发生的关系,利用40 dBz回波顶高、-10℃层以上超过40 dBz的回波面积及其与单体总面积的百分比对该地区闪电进行预报。结果表明:雷暴单体和非雷暴单体在回波强度为40 dBz时,超过0℃、-10℃和-20℃三种层结高度所占百分比的差值最大。-10℃层的40 dBz回波顶高较其他层结高度能更好地区分邵阳地区的雷暴单体与非雷暴单体。-10℃层以上超过40 dBz的面积所占单体总面积百分比大于1%这一阈值时,可作为区分雷暴单体和非雷暴单体的一个有效预警指标。综合使用40 dBz回波顶高、-10℃层以上超过40 dBz的回波面积及其与单体总面积的百分比对12个单体样本进行检验,雷暴单体预报的准确率达66.7%,非雷暴单体判断的准确率为83.3%。
Based on lightning location data and radar data,the 30 dBz,35 dBz,and 40 dBz echo peaks of the 17 thunderstorm cells and 9 non-thunderstorm cells,as well as the relationship between the echo area exceeding 30 dBz,35 dBz and 40 dBz at 0℃,-10℃,and-20℃layer and the occurrence of lightning in Shaoyang in the summer of 2018,were analyzed.Using 40 dBz echo top height,the echo area above the-10℃layer exceeding 40 dBz and its ratio to the total area of the cell,the lightning in this area was forecasted.The results show that when the echo intensity of thunderstorm cell and non-thunderstorm cell is 40 dBz,the difference of percentage of three stratification heights exceeding 0℃,-10℃,and-20℃is the largest.The 40 dBz echo top height of the-10℃layer can better distinguish thunderstorm cells and non-thunderstorm cells in the Shaoyang area than other stratification heights.When the percentage of the area above the-10℃layer exceeding 40 dBz in the total cell area is greater than 1%of the threshold,it can be used as an effective early warning indicator to distinguish between thunderstorm cells and non-thunderstorm cells.Comprehensive use of 40 dBz echo top height,-10℃layer above the echo area of more than 40 dBz and the percentage of the total area of the monomer to test 12 monomer samples,the accuracy rate of thunderstorm forecast is 66.7%.The accuracy rate of non-thunderstorm cell judgment is 83.3%.
作者
周明薇
王道平
罗龙友
王少娟
郭斌
ZHOU Ming-wei;WANG Dao-ping;LUO Long-you;WANG Shao-juan;GUO Bin(Hu′nan Meteorological Disaster Prevention Technology Center,Changsha 410007,China;Key Laboratory of Meteorologicol Disaster Prevention and Mitigation in Hu′nan Province,Changsha 410118,China;Shaoyang Meteorological Service,Shaoyang 422000,China)
出处
《气象与环境学报》
2021年第3期117-124,共8页
Journal of Meteorology and Environment
基金
湖南省气象局重点科研课题(XQKJ19A002)资助。
关键词
闪电预报
临近预警
雷达回波
回波面积
Lightning forecast
Imminent warning
Radar echo
Echo area
