摘要
本文核算了我国30个省区市2000—2018年化石能源消费产生的碳排放,运用Mann-Kendall(MK)趋势检验法,探讨了碳排放的时空演变特征及其类型划分。研究表明:我国碳排放维持了"东部高、西部低,北部高、南部低"的空间格局,且东北部、中部、东部碳排放存在聚集效应,高、低排放省区市之间的差异近年来有所增大;同时,我国碳排放强度呈现显著的下降趋势,其空间特征与碳排放量空间特征存在一定差异。依据碳排放时间演变特征可将30个省区市分为显著减少(如北京、天津等)、减少趋势(如上海、湖北等)、增加趋势(如河北、山东等)和显著增加(如山西、新疆等)四种类型。以上研究结果系统识别了30个省区市碳排放量的时空变化特征,并对碳排放变化趋势进行了分类,能够为我国设定省级碳达峰目标和制定碳减排政策提供更为充分的科学依据和决策支撑。
Based on the carbon emission accounting method and Mann-Kendall test, the spatio-temporal characteristics of fossil fuel-related carbon emissions from 30 provinces in China during the period of 2000 to 2018 are investigated and classified.The main findings are as follows: the spatial pattern of carbon emissions in China maintains a "high in the east and north, low in the west and south" distribution, accompanying an aggregation effect over the northeast, middle and east parts of China.It is also noteworthy that the differences between high-emission and low-emission provinces have become larger in recent years.In addition, the carbon emission intensity has declined significantly, for which its pattern differs from the carbon emission pattern.The carbon emission for the 30 provinces can be classified into four groups, namely significant decrease group(e.g.Beijing, Tianjin et al.),decrease trend group(e.g.Shanghai, Hubei et al.),increase trend group(e.g.Hebei, Shandong et al.) and significant increase group(e.g.Shanxi, Xinjiang et al.),according to the time evolution of the carbon emission calculated during 2000—2018 for each province.The abovementioned results have identified the temporal and spatial characteristics of carbon emissions in various provinces, autonomous regions and municipalities, and classified changes in carbon emissions, which can provide a more adequate scientific basis and decision support for setting carbon emissions targets and formulating carbon emission reduction policies.
作者
王鹏
冯相昭
王敏
安祺
杨儒浦
赵梦雪
WANG Peng;FENG Xiangzhao;WANG Min;AN Qi;YANG Rupu;ZHAO Mengxue(Policy Research Center for Environment and Economy,Ministry of Ecology and Environment,Beijing 100029,China)
出处
《环境与可持续发展》
2021年第3期31-36,共6页
Environment and Sustainable Development
关键词
碳排放
时空特征
类型划分
碳达峰
MANN-KENDALL检验
carbon emission
spatio-temporal characteristics
type classification
carbon emission peaking
Mann-Kendall test
