摘要
研究目标:构建监测金融资金流向实体经济指标,检验其对实体经济增长的影响。研究方法:基于投入产出分析技术构建FWTW资金流量表和金融服务实体经济测算指标;运用双向固定效应模型、系统GMM等方法进行实证检验。研究发现:2004~2017年中国金融资金服务实体经济总量不断增长,但近年来中国金融资金服务实体经济占比和服务实体经济中非金融企业部门占比在下降;而服务金融部门占比、服务实体经济中政府部门和住户部门占比上升,这表明中国金融部门资金流向存在"脱实向虚"发展趋势;分组比较表明高收入国家金融资金更多流向了金融市场,低收入国家金融资金更多流向实体经济中非金融企业部门;与典型发达国家相比,中国金融资金流向实体经济占比更稳定,服务实体经济内非金融企业部门占比相对更高;实证检验发现金融资金流向实体经济占比与实体经济增长间呈显著倒U形关系;异质性分析显示在高收入国家组、时间段2003~2007年二者之间倒U形关系仍显著,政府部门及住户部门内金融资金流向实体经济占比与部门经济增长之间为显著倒U形关系。研究创新:从金融与实体经济资金关联视角编制部门间资金流量表,构建金融部门资金服务实体经济的总量指标、总量比例和结构比例指标,对样本国金融资金服务实体经济程度进行测算和国际比较;探究金融资金对实体经济增长影响。研究价值:为长期和动态监测一国金融资金流向,评价一国金融风险,制定促进金融服务实体经济的宏观经济政策提供重要依据。
Research Objectives:This paper constructs indicators to monitor the flow of financial funds to the real economy,verifies its impact on the growth of the real economy.Research Methods:Based Input-output analysis technology and FWTW flow of fund accounts,this paper constructs indicators of financial sector services the real economy for sample countries;this paper uses two-way fixed effect model System GMM to conduct empirical test.Research Findings:From 2004 to 2017,Total Funds from the Financial Sector to the Real Economy in China has been growing,but recent years,the Ratio of FTR to Total Uses of Financial Sector’s Funds has been declining,and the Ratio of Funds from the Financial Sector to the Non-financial Corporations Sector to FTR has been declining,while The Ratios of Funds from the Financial Sector to Government an Households Sector is increasing,These results show that China’s financial sector fund has a shifted from the real economy to fictitious economy trend;group comparison results show that compared to low-income countries,financial funds in high-income countries flow more to the financial market;compared with typical countries,the proportion of China’s financial funds flowing to the real economy is more stable,and the proportion of the non-financial corporations sector in serving real economy is relatively higher;the empirical test show that there is a significant inverted U-shaped relationship between the RFTR and the growth of real economy,and the heterogeneity analysis show that the inverted U-shaped relationship between financial funds and economic growth is more significant in high-income countries and time period 2003-2007,and there is a significant inverted U-shaped relationship between RFTR and the sector economic growth in government and households sectors.Research Innovations:From the perspective of financial and real economy funds correlation,this paper compiles the inter-sector fund flow accounts,calculates and compares the total index,ratio index and structure ratio index of financial sector fund servicing the real economy on China and OECD countries,from the perspective of fund connection explore the relationship of finance and the real economy.Research Value:This paper provides very important indexes and basis to long-term and dynamic monitor a country’s financial funds flow,evaluate a country’s financial risks,and formulate macroeconomic policies to promote more financial funds service the real economy.
作者
孙红燕
管莉莉
张先锋
Sun Hongyan;Guan Lili;Zhang Xianfeng(School of Economics,Hefei University of Technology)
出处
《数量经济技术经济研究》
CSSCI
CSCD
北大核心
2021年第7期159-176,共18页
Journal of Quantitative & Technological Economics
基金
国家社会科学基金一般项目“全球价值链视角下我国金融业‘脱实向虚’的测度、结构效应与治理研究”(18BJL078)的资助。
关键词
金融服务实体经济
FWTW资金流量表
资金关联
实体经济增长
Financial Sector Services the Real Economy
FWTW Fund Flow Accounts
Fund Correlation
Real Economy Growth
