摘要
基于地方政府财政收入预算"超收"和支出预算"少支"的现象,探讨政府预算偏离对区域经济稳定的影响机制。在Barro内生经济增长模型中引入政府收支的预算管理机制,发现政府预算偏离将加剧区域间经济增长的波动水平;一系列经验分析表明,当财政收支的差额预算偏离的幅度提高10%,相应地区的经济增长波动水平将增加0.97%,其中,财政支出预算偏离对经济增长波动水平的影响超过0.90%。该结论将为深化预算管理体制、科学调控政府收支、促进区域经济发展提供参考和建议。
Based on the phenomenon that the local government’s fiscal budget deviation appears as“overcollection”and the expenditure budget deviation appears as“less expenditure”,the effect of government budget deviation on regional economic stability is explored.In Barro’s endogenous economic growth model,the government’s budget management mechanism is added,and it is found that government budget deviations would exacerbate the fluctuation level of economic growth between regions.A series of empirical analysis showed that when the difference in budget deviations of fiscal revenues and expenditures increased by 10%,the fluctuation level of economic growth in the corresponding region will increase by 0.97%and among them,the deviation of fiscal expenditure budget will affect the fluctuation level of economic growth by more than 0.90%,which can provide the references and suggestions for deepening the budget management system,scientifically regulating government revenue and expenditure,and promoting regional economic development.
作者
张凯强
陈志刚
ZHANG Kai-qiang;CHEN Zhi-gang(National Academy of Economic Strategy,Chinese Academy of Social Sciences,Beijing 100006,China;College of Economics,Shenzhen University,Shenzhen 518060,China)
出处
《统计与信息论坛》
CSSCI
北大核心
2021年第7期64-75,共12页
Journal of Statistics and Information
基金
国家社会科学基金青年项目“近几年减税降费政策效果评估研究”(20CJY058)
广东省哲学社会科学“十三五”规划青年项目“人大监督对政府预算行为的影响研究”(GD19YYJ12)
广东省基础与应用基础研究基金项目“预算偏离、不确定性与产能过剩”(2019A1515110938)。
关键词
政府收支
预算偏离
预算管理
经济稳定
government revenue and expenditure
budget deviation
budget management
economic stability
