摘要
现有的关键链项目进度监控方法只关注时间缓冲的消耗,忽略了资源对项目进度的影响为解决现有方法监控效果随缓冲确定方法的不同而变化的问题,提出了基于资源细分的项目进度监控方法。将项目执行过程中所需要的所有资源根据各自的特点划分为三类,并通过多目标模糊综合评价法确定预警状态值,求解超期最小化目标函数,最后采用BPNN预测项目下一阶段的情况,以便及时处理项目执行过程中的问题。实验结果表明,项目资源进度监控方法能够对项目将要发生的风险状况进行有效预测,对降低超期完工率和产能剩余率收到了良好的效果。
Classic schedule monitoring methods for critical chain projects focus only on the consumption of time buffers,ignoring the impact of resource consumption on the project schedule. In order to solve the problem of the instability of monitoring effect caused by different buffer sizing methods in the critical chain project management,a new schedule monitoring method based on project resource segmentation is proposed in this paper. First,all the required project resources are divided into three types on the basis of resource characteristics. Second,the warning state values of according resources are determined by the multi-objective fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method to minimize the objective function. Finally,the follow-up resource consumption of the project is predicted by BPNN,so that the issues arising from the project implementation can be handled timely and comprehensively. The experiment results show that the proposed method can reduce the overdue completion rate and the production-capacity-surplus rate by means of effectively predicting the risk status of the project.
作者
张俊光
李凯
Zhang Junguang;Li Kai(School of Economics and Management,University of Science and Technology Beijing,Beijing 100083)
出处
《管理评论》
CSSCI
北大核心
2021年第6期224-231,共8页
Management Review
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(71572010,71701067)。
关键词
项目管理
关键链
进度监控
资源细分
缓冲
project management
critical chain
schedule monitoring
resource segmentation
buffer
