摘要
文章提出民族人口变动平衡方程,结合经典人口转变理论,使用1982年、1990年、2000年和2010年四期全国人口普查汇总数据及其微观数据,以及1987年和2005年全国1%人口抽样调查汇总数据,对中国大陆各民族人口在1982年至2010年期间的人口转变过程展开分析。研究表明:人口自然变动方面,截至2010年,汉族人口处于转变完成阶段,少数民族人口总体处于转变后期阶段,各民族人口所处阶段、转变进程有所不同;族际婚生子女民族成份选择方面,各民族人口净择入率水平高低不一,但在不同人口转变阶段的表现呈现出"先升后降"的变化趋势;民族成份变更方面,民族成份变更因素在20世纪80年代成为影响民族人口总量变动趋势的主导因素,而后在20世纪90年代以后被人口自然变动因素所替代,但2000年以来,其影响越发重要。据此认为:要重点关注死亡率或出生率转变相对滞后且转变较慢的民族人口,应重视族际婚生子女民族成份选择和民族成份变更因素的影响,面对人口老龄化加剧、族际通婚普遍和国际移民愈加活跃的未来,应提前做好民族人口相关制度和研究上的准备。
Combined with the classic demographic transition theory,this article proposes the balance equation of ethnic population change to analyze the demographic transition process of the population of various ethnic groups in Chinese mainland from 1982 to 2010,based on the aggregate data and micro-data of 1982,1990,2000 and 2010 national censuses as well as aggregate data of 1% national population sample survey in 1987 and2005.In terms of natural population changes,the research shows that up to 2010,the Han population is in the stage of completion of the transformation,and the population of all ethnic minorities are in the later stage of transformation.The transition process and transition speed of the population of each ethnic group show different characteristics.In the selection of ethnic identity of children born in inter-ethnic marriages,the net selection rate of the population of each ethnic group is different,but the demographic transitional performance at different stages shows a trend of "rising first and then falling".In terms of ethnic identity changes,the impact cannot be ignored;ethnic identity changes became the dominant factor influencing the trend of ethnic population changes in the 1980 s,and were replaced by natural population changes after the 1990 s.However,since 2000,the impact of changes in ethnic identity has been becoming more and more important.With regard to this point,we should focus on the population of an ethnic group whose death rate or birth rate is relatively lagging and changing slowly and pay attention to the influence of the selection of ethnic identity of children born in inter-ethnic marriages and ethnic identity changes.With the increase of aging population,inter-ethnic intermarriage,and active international migration,we should make preparations in advance for ethnic population systems and research concerned.
作者
段成荣
黄凡
毕忠鹏
巫锡炜
Duan Chengrong;Huang Fan;Bi Zhongpeng;Wu Xiwei
出处
《民族研究》
CSSCI
北大核心
2021年第2期39-56,M0003,共19页
Ethno-National Studies
基金
教育部人文社科重点研究基地重大项目“中国少数民族人口与边疆发展研究”(项目批准号:18JJD840001)的阶段性研究成果
关键词
民族人口
人口转变
民族成份变更
ethnic minority population
demographic transition
ethnic identity changes
