摘要
目的分析上海市长宁区居民1974—2013年胰腺癌发病与死亡情况及其变化趋势。方法利用肿瘤登记数据、采用Segi’s世界标准人口计算胰腺癌的年龄标化发病(死亡)率、年均变化百分比等指标;并构建年龄-时期-队列模型,以评估三者对胰腺癌发病和死亡趋势的影响。结果1974—2013年上海市长宁区男女性胰腺癌标化发病率分别为6.49/10万和4.83/10万;标化死亡率分别为6.01/10万和4.57/10万。男性标化发病率以平均每年0.8%幅度上升,标化死亡率变化无统计学意义;女性标化发病率和死亡率分别以平均每年1.6%和1.3%的幅度上升。调整时期和队列影响后,男女性年龄每增加5岁,胰腺癌发病和死亡率均上升约11%。时期和队列对胰腺癌发病及死亡风险的影响无统计学意义。结论1974-2013年长宁区男女性标化发病率和女性标化死亡率呈明显上升趋势,并且随年龄增加而上升。
Objective To analyze the secular trends of pancreatic cancer incidence and mortality in Changning district of Shanghai from 1974 to 2013.Methods We calculated the age-standardized rates of incidence and mortality and the average annual percent changes for pancreatic cancer using Segi’s world standard population and the data from Shanghai Cancer Registry.Age-period-cohort model was constructed to further assess the effect of age,diagnosis period and birth cohort on the secular trends of pancreatic cancer incidence and mortality.Results During 1974-2013,the age-standardized incidence and mortality rates were 6.49/105 and 6.01/105 in male,4.83/105 and 4.57/105 in female,respectively.The age-standardized incidence was increased by 0.8%per year in male during past 40 years,while there was no change in mortality.The age-standardized incidence and mortality rates were increased by 1.6%and 1.3%per year in female.After adjusting the effects of diagnosis period and birth cohort,the incidence and mortality rates of pancreatic cancer increased by about 11%every 5 years older in both male and female.Diagnosis period and birth cohort had no statistical impact on the incidence and mortality of pancreatic cancer.Conclusion The age-standardized incidence of pancreatic cancer shows significantly rising trends during 1974-2013 in both male and female in Changning district of Shanghai,as well as the age-standardized mortality in female.The incidence and mortality rates also increase with age.
作者
方婕
王洁
李泓澜
冯国杉
吴婳
蒋宇飞
姜玉
张磊
张云
周鹏
夏庆华
赵文穗
项永兵
FANG Jie;WANG Jie;LI Honglan;FENG Guoshan;WU Hua;JIANG Yufei;JIANG Yu;ZHANG Lei;ZHANG Yun;ZHOU Peng;XIA Qinghua;ZHAO Wensui;XIANG Yongbing(State Key Laboratory of Oncogenes and Related Genes&Department of Epidemiology,Shanghai Cancer Institute,Renji Hospital,Shanghai Jiaotong University School of Medicine,Shanghai 200032,China;Shanghai Changning District Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Shanghai 200051,China;School of Public Health,Shanghai Jiaotong University School of Medicine,Shanghai 200025,China)
出处
《肿瘤防治研究》
CAS
CSCD
2021年第7期727-732,共6页
Cancer Research on Prevention and Treatment
基金
国家重点研发计划重大慢性非传染性疾病防控研究重点专项(2016YFC1302503)。
