摘要
天然橡胶是四大工业原料之一,市场化金融化程度高,价格波动的影响因素及其机理复杂。系统分析2020年天然橡胶市场变动发现,2020年4月天然橡胶价格跌至近5年最低点,11月又涨至近3年最高点,主要原因包括人员流动受限、极端气候等引致全球减产,中国在新冠肺炎疫情得到控制后国内经济快速恢复,美国等世界主要经济体实行宽松货币政策。预计2021年全球天然橡胶将实现较大幅度增产,国内天然橡胶需求继续保持旺盛,进口基本维持稳定。通过模型模拟和综合判断,预期2021年天然橡胶价格震荡上涨,在13000~18000元/t之间波动。最后,基于产区原料市场建设相对滞后、产能发挥不充分、老龄低产残次胶园占比高等因素不利于产业的可持续发展,建议加强原料市场信息化建设,推动生产性社会化服务业发展,给予胶园更新专项支持。
Natural rubber with the high degree of marketization and financialization is one of the four major industrial raw materials,the influencing factors and formation mechanisms of price fluctuations are complicated.A systematic analysis on the changes in the natural rubber market in 2020 was made,and it was found that the price of natural rubber in April 2020 fell to the lowest point in the past five years,and in November rose to the highest point in the past three years.The main reasons include limited personnel mobility and extreme weather that have led to a reduction in global natural rubber production,China’s economy has recovered rapidly after the COVID-19 pandemic under control,and the United States and other major economies in the world have implemented loose monetary policies.It was predicted that global natural rubber production would increase substantially in 2021,natural rubber demand in China would continue to remain strong,and imports would basically remain stable.Through the model simulations and comprehensive judgment,natural rubber price was expected to fluctuate and rise in 2021,with fluctuation between 130 million yuan to 180 million yuan per ton.Finally,due to the sustainable development of the industry is affected by factors such as the relatively lagging construction of raw material market in the production area,insufficient production capacity,and a high proportion of aging,low-yield and defective rubber plantations,suggestions were put forward to strengthen the informatization construction of raw material market,promote the development of productive socialized services,and provide special financial support for renewals of rubber plantations.
作者
刘锐金
杨琳
莫业勇
Liu Ruijin;Yang Lin;Mo Yeyong(Rubber Research Institute,Chinese Academy of Tropical Agricultural Sciences,Haikou 571101,Hainan)
出处
《农业展望》
2021年第4期9-14,共6页
Agricultural Outlook
基金
中国热带农业科学院橡胶研究所基本科研业务费专项资金(No.1630022020014)
农业农村部市场与信息化司政府购买服务项目(No.11200010)。
关键词
天然橡胶
价格预期
市场基础设施建设
胶园更新
natural rubber
price expectation
market infrastructure construction
rubber plantation renewal
