摘要
情景属于突发公共卫生事件应急决策的基本依据,采用情景推演的方式可以为实际的应急决策提供科学有效的辅助支持。在分析突发公共卫生事件情景演变规律的基础上,提取了情景状态(S)、应急目标(T)和应急措施(M)三个要素来建立对应的情景表示模型;在此基础上,针对突发公共卫生事件的不确定性特点,运用动态贝叶斯网络来建立对应的情景推演模型,可以对于此类事件的演变路径进行研究;在研究过程中,以新冠肺炎疫情为例进行分析,阐述了新冠肺炎疫情情景推演流程及关键技术,并对情景推演的结果进行了分析。推演结果与实际疫情发展情景及发展状态基本一致,验证了情景推演方法的合理性和可行性。
Scenarios are the basis of decisions to public health emergencies,and via deduction of scenarios of these emergencies,it provides decision makers with efficient and scientific supports.This thesis analyses the basis of public health emergency patterns,extracting scenario situations,target solutions,and measures,in order to construct knowledge-unit model which illustrates the public health outbreaks.On top of that,regarding the features of uncertainties of public health events,this thesis extends the uncertainty representation and uncertainty inference of knowledge-unit model by using dynamic Bayesian network,then construct dynamic Bayesian network scenario model,completing the analysis stemming from public health emergency scenario and deductive pathways.Finally,by taking Covid-19 pandemic for demonstration,this thesis depicts the scenario deductive pathways and key techniques of Covid-19,and by further analyzing the results of deductive scenario,it is believed that deductive results,and actual pandemic development situations as well as its status bear great resemblance,thus proving the feasibility and reasonability of deductive scenario.
作者
高山
王晗奕
GAO Shan;WANG Hanyi(Business School,Central South University,Changsha 430074,China)
出处
《灾害学》
CSCD
北大核心
2021年第3期28-34,共7页
Journal of Catastrophology
基金
国家自然科学基金项目“社会化媒体下重大决策社会稳定风险传导路径与防控机制研究”(71573280)
2020年度湖南省创新型省份建设专项项目(2020sk3010)。
关键词
突发公共卫生事件
情景推演
知识元模型
动态贝叶斯网络
public health emergencies
deductive scenario
knowledge-unit model
dynamic Bayesian network
