摘要
2021年全国两会将碳中和、碳达峰列为今后几十年内重点工作之一。在后疫情时代全球货币超发、"负时代"背景下,为了印证双碳战略对中国未来经济增长的积极促进作用,通过梳理新古典经济模型、新增长理论要素并结合实际减碳操作的方式,发现双碳战略的确立不仅顺应了全球可持续发展的趋势,而且也为未来经济新增长提供了重要驱动力,主要体现在6个方面(:1)技术创新对经济增长的贡献作用约占九成;(2)基础设施投资水平与社会总产出之间正相关关系显著;(3)绿色金融资本投放将加速经济的智能化与可持续化转型;(4)创新型人力资本投入是生产效率提升的基础与保障;(5)开放型碳交易对绿色生产绩效提高具有良好的成本效益;(6)长期来看自然资源保护对广义包容性财富、社会良好福祉的扩展具有积极深远的意义。目前双碳进程仍存在不少阻碍与挑战,发挥政府领导带头作用、提高绿色项目精准识别的能力、设立碳排放激励机制、开展碳学科产学研联盟与碳交易市场"一带一路"建设或可助推双碳目标的达成。
In 2021,Chinese government announced that carbon neutrality and peak carbon dioxide emissions will be one of the key tasks in the next few decades.With the amount of global currency being over-printed and negative interest rates becoming norm,this paper aims to confirm that the dual-carbon strategy has a positive effect on Chinese economic growth in the post-pandemic era.We find that the implementation of the dual-carbon strategy not only conforms to the sustainable development trend,but also provides an important driving force for future economic growth through the analysis of neoclassical economic model and the endogenous economic growth theory.It is reflected in six aspects:(1)The contribution of technical innovation to the economic growth accounts for about 90%;(2)There is a significant positive correlation between the level of infrastructure investments and productive output;(3)Green capital investments will accelerate the digital and sustainable transformation of the economy;(4)Innovative human capital investments play the role of foundation as well as guarantee of improved production efficiency;(5)Carbon trading has promising cost effectiveness for improving green production performance;(6)In the long run,protecting natural resources is a positive move and will facilitate the expansion of inclusive wealth and social well-being.However,there are still many obstacles and challenges for China in the dualcarbon process.Taking advantage of government assistance,improving the core capability of identifying green projects accurately,providing incentives for lower carbon emission,forming industry-university-research alliances and initiating creative Chinese carbon trading markets may accelerate the achievement of dual-carbon goals.
作者
芮萌
尹文强
RUI Meng;YIN Wenqiang
出处
《上海商学院学报》
2021年第4期15-25,共11页
Business Economic Review
关键词
碳中和
碳达峰
经济增长
新古典经济模型
新增长理论
carbon neutral
peak carbon dioxide emission
economic growth
neoclassical economic model
endogenous economic growth theory
