摘要
油气产能预测受很多不确定性因素影响,开展油气产能不确定性预测方法研究,是提高油气产能预测结果可靠性的有效途径。首先研究了影响油气产能预测不确定性的各种因素,然后分析了国内外油气产能不确定性预测方法的研究现状,最后探讨了油气产能不确定性预测研究领域存在的问题及未来前景。研究表明:影响油气产能预测不确定性的因素可划分为客观复杂性因素和主观不确定性因素;现有的油气产能不确定性预测方法主要是统计逼近方法,如何降低计算成本是这类方法目前的研究焦点;非统计逼近方法解决了统计逼近方法计算成本高的问题,预计将成为未来油气产能预测领域一个重要的发展方向。
Oil and gas productivity prediction is affected by many uncertain factors.Research on the undeterministic prediction method of oil and gas productivity is an effective way to improve the reliability of oil and gas productivity prediction results.Firstly,various factors affecting the uncertainty of oil and gas productivity prediction was studied.Then,the research status of the undeterministic prediction method of oil and gas productivity was analyzed.Finally,the problems and future prospects in the research field of the undeterministic prediction method of oil and gas productivity were discussed.The research indicates that the factors affecting the uncertainty of oil and gas productivity prediction can be divided into objective complexity factors and subjective uncertainty factors.The existing undeterministic prediction methods of oil and gas productivity are mainly statistical approximation methods.How to reduce the calculation cost is the current research focus of these methods.The non-statistical approximation method solves the problem of high computational cost of the statistical approximation method,and is expected to become an important development direction in the future oil and gas productivity prediction field.
作者
邓思哲
马文礼
DENG Sizhe;MA Wenli(School of Geosciences,China University of Petroleum(Beijing),Beijing 102249,China;China National Oil and Gas Exploration and Development Corporation Ltd.,Beijing 100034,China)
出处
《石油化工应用》
CAS
2021年第7期1-6,共6页
Petrochemical Industry Application
基金
国家科技重大专项项目“大型油气田及煤层气开发”资助,项目编号:2016ZX05029。
关键词
油气产能预测
产能影响因素
不确定性
随机性
统计逼近
oil and gas productivity forecast
productivity impact factors
uncertainty
randomness
statistical approximation
