摘要
考虑分布式供能系统中存在的不确定性因素对系统实现良好性能十分重要。该文考虑分布式供能系统中负荷需求、可再生能源强度与能源价格的不确定性,基于决策理论研究分布式供能系统的优化配置。采用一种情景产生方法利用离散的点集与对应概率表示参数的不确定性,使用正交试验设计方法设计情景集考虑各不确定性参数之间的组合。经过优化计算,得到各情景下的最优系统方案,将这些方案应用于其他情景中,得到系统的经济性能,使用5种不确定型决策理论(乐观法、悲观法、乐观系数法、等可能值法、最小最大后悔值法)对方案进行选择。将模型应用于一家医院,验证了模型的有效性与可行性。结果表明,乐观法选择的方案中设备的安装容量较小,悲观法选择的方案中设备的安装容量较大。等可能值法与最小最大后悔值法选择的方案在各情景中运行时可实现较好的经济性能。研究有助于决策者制定科学决策,降低分布式供能系统在不确定性条件下运行的风险。
It is very important to consider uncertain factors in distributed energy resource(DER)systems to achieve good system performance.This paper considered uncertainties in load demands,renewable energy intensity and energy price in DER systems,and studied the optimal design of DER systems based on the decision-making theory.A scenario generation method was adopted to present the uncertain parameters using discrete point sets and corresponding probabilities,and an orthogonal experiment design method was used to generate scenario sets to consider combinations of various uncertain parameters.After optimization calculations,optimal system plans under scenarios were obtained,and these plans were applied to other scenarios to obtain the economic performance of the systems.Five uncertain decision-making theories(optimistic criterion,pessimistic criterion,Hurwicz criterion,Laplace criterion and minimax regret criterion)were adopted to select appropriate plans.The model was applied to a hospital,and the validity and feasibility of the model were verified.Results show that the installed capacity of equipment in the plan selected by optimistic criterion is small,and the installed capacity of equipment in the plan selected by pessimistic criterion is relatively large.Plans selected by the Laplace criterion and minimax regret criterion can achieve good economic performance operating in various scenarios.This research can help decision makers make scientific decisions and reduce operating risks of DER systems under uncertainties.
作者
黎达
张士杰
LI Da;ZHANG Shijie(University of Chinese Academy of Sciences,Haidian District,Beijing 100190,China)
出处
《中国电机工程学报》
EI
CSCD
北大核心
2021年第15期5232-5241,共10页
Proceedings of the CSEE
基金
航空发动机及燃气轮机重大专项基础研究项目(2017-I-0002-0002)。
关键词
分布式供能系统
优化设计
不确定性
不确定型决策理论
正交试验设计
distributed energy resource
optimal design
uncertainty
uncertain decision-making theory
orthogonal experiment design
