摘要
在后疫情时代全球经济复苏的关键时期,中国提出了努力到2060年实现碳中和的明确气候目标。碳捕集、利用与封存(CCUS)被认为是未来实现碳中和愿景的关键技术,为CCUS项目建立合理的商业模式是未来推动CCUS项目在中国进行大规模部署的必要环节。通过对中国现有CCUS示范项目和国际大型一体化CCUS项目的分析发现,CCUS项目未来的商业模式必须包括政府指导、配套激励政策支持、碳交易市场支持、企业联合投资或成立合资公司分担风险,以及结合具有高附加值的二氧化碳利用技术。以广东省某超超临界燃煤电厂为例,利用净现值法和@risk软件对百万吨级的碳捕集结合二氧化碳提高采收率项目进行经济效益和风险评估,结果显示,在当前油价和碳价均属于较低水平的情况下,缺乏完善商业模式的高附加值项目仍有可能实现盈利。随着全国碳市场的完善带来的碳价增长,全球经济实现复苏导致的油价上升,均有望对CCUS项目的经济效益产生积极影响,未来十年将成为CCUS发展的关键时间节点。
During the post-epidemic era,global economic recovery has become the main topic for every country.China has put forward a clear climate goal of striving to achieve carbon neutrality by 2060.Carbon capture,utilization and storage(CCUS)is widely considered as an essential technology to achieve the climate target of carbon neutrality.Establishing a reasonable business model for CCUS project is a necessary step to promote the large-scale deployment of CCUS in China.By reviewing the business model of international large-scale integrated CCUS projects and national CCUS demonstration projects,it is clear that the business model of CCUS must include the government guidance with a complete set of incentive policy scheme,the support from a developed carbon market,a number of enterprises jointly invest or set up joint venture to reduce the risks,and combined with high added value carbon dioxide utilization technologies.The authors also simulated a million-ton CCUS project in an ultra-supercritial coal-fired plant in Guangdong province as a case study.They use NPV method and@risk software to evaluate the economic benefit and assesse the risks.The results show that,at the current low oil and carbon prices,the high value-added project could still be profitable.With the increase in carbon price caused by the improvement of national emission trading system and the rise in oil price caused by global economic recovery,it is expected to have a positive impact on the economic benefits of CCUS projects.The next ten years will become the key time node of CCUS development.
作者
刘牧心
梁希
林千果
LIU Muxin;LIANG Xi;LIN Qianguo(School of Economics,Guangzhou College of South China University of Technology,Guangzhou 510800,China;UK-China(Guangdong)CCUS Centre,Guangzhou 510440,China;Business School,University of Edinburgh,Edinburgh EH89JS,UK;China-UK Low Carbon College,Shanghai Jiao Tong University,Shanghai 201306,China)
出处
《热力发电》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2021年第9期18-26,共9页
Thermal Power Generation
基金
国家生态环境部应对气候变化司应对气候变化专项“CCUS标准化体系建设研究”(20190238)。
关键词
碳中和
CCUS
商业模式
净现值法
经济效益
风险评估
carbon neutral
CCUS
business model
net present value method
economic benefits
risk assessment
