摘要
利用2020年黑龙江省84个站夏季逐日降水资料,以1/3以上的站点单日降水量超过10 mm为标准,对黑龙江省夏季强降水事件进行了定义。分析表明2020年黑龙江省夏季共发生强降水事件12次,其中6月发生5次,7月发生2次,8月发生5次。2020年夏季延伸期共预报强降水过程17次,其中正确9次,空报8次,漏报3次,准确率达到75%。从月份来看,8月延伸期强降水过程预测准确率最好,6月次之,7月效果最差。分析超前11-20 d和超前21-30 d预报的强降水过程,发现强降水过程的预报效果与预报起始时段没有明显的关系。延伸期可以一定程度上预报台风降水,但是强度和落区仍有一定的差别,需要进行进一步订正。
Based on the daily precipitation data of 84 stations in Heilongjiang Province in summer in 2020, taking the daily precipitation of over 1/3 stations more than 10 mm as the standard, the summer heavy rainfall process in Heilongjiang Province is defined. The analysis shows that there were 12 heavy rainfall processes in summer in 2020, including 5 in June, 2 in July and 5 in August. In summer extended-range in 2020, a total of17 heavy rainfall processes were predicted, of which 9 were correct, 8 were false and 3 were missed, with an accuracy of 75%. The prediction accuracy of the heavy rainfall process in the extended-range of August is the best,followed by June, and the worst in July. It is found that there is no obvious relationship between the forecast effect of heavy rainfall process and the Start time period of forecast. The extended-range can forecast typhoon precipitation to a certain extent, but there are still some differences in intensity and area, which need to be further revised.
作者
赵佳莹
李永生
班晋
刘玉娇
ZHAO Jia-ying;LI Yong-sheng;BAN Jin;LIU Yu-jiao(Heilongjiang Climate Center,Heilongjiang Harbin 150030;Mudanjiang Meteorological Bureau,Heilongjiang Mudanjiang 157000)
出处
《黑龙江气象》
2021年第2期4-5,14,共3页
Heilongjiang Meteorology
基金
中国气象局预报员专项(CMAYBY2020-038)
2020年灾害性天气预报技术总结分析(CXFZ2021Z034)。
关键词
夏季
强降水
模式检验
Summer
heavy rainfall process
model test
