摘要
婚姻不仅影响家庭发展,也与生育密切相关,对国家的人口再生产影响较大。人口调查数据显示我国人口生育率仍在下降,人口的初婚模式也发生了较大变化,初婚年龄推迟很可能导致生育意愿大幅降低。探讨我国人口初婚年龄的变化特点,尤其探究晚婚的分因素贡献率,能对相关婚育政策提供一定的建议。本文基于第五次、第六次全国人口普查数据分析我国不同地区(城市、镇、农村)、不同受教育程度人口的平均初婚年龄特点及变化趋势,并借鉴经济学常用的"贡献率"概念,通过分因素贡献率比较分地区(城市、镇、农村)以及不同受教育程度对我国人口总体晚婚的贡献程度。研究发现我国人口平均初婚年龄持续升高,城市地区人口的平均初婚年龄大于乡镇、农村地区;平均初婚年龄与受教育程度呈现先略微下降,再持续上升关系,小学文化水平人口的平均初婚年龄最低,小学以上文化水平表现为受教育程度越高,平均初婚年龄越高。分因素贡献率分析显示城市地区对我国人口晚婚贡献率最大,农村地区人口的晚婚贡献率最低;相较于2000年,2010年城市地区人口晚婚贡献率有所下降,农村地区晚婚贡献率上升。不同受教育程度的晚婚贡献率较为复杂且男性与女性存在差异,对于男性,高中文化水平对晚婚的贡献率最大,高中以上文化水平则随着受教育程度上升,晚婚贡献率降低;对于女性,小学学历对晚婚的贡献率最低,其次为未上过学的女性,高中文化水平对晚婚的贡献率最高,高中以上学历则随着受教育程度的提高,晚婚贡献率降低;较高受教育程度男性与女性的晚婚贡献率逐渐趋同。
Marriage affects the development of the family and is closely related to fertility,and has a considerable influence on the reproduction of the population.Census data shows that China’s population’s birth rates are still falling.The pattern of the first marriage among the Chinese population has also undergone significant changes,and delayed first marriage age would reduce the childbearing desires.Thus it is essential to study the transformation trend of the mean age of first marriage in China,especially to explore the contribution rate of the factors of late marriage to provide some suggestions for China’s marriage and birth policies.Based on the fifth and sixth national census data,the present study analyzes the characteristics and trends of the mean age of the first marriage in different regions and different educational levels in China and uses the concept of contribution rate commonly used in economics to examine the contribution rates of late marriage caused by different area and different levels of education.The results show that our country’s mean age of the first marriage is increasing over time,and the average first marriage age in urban areas is higher than that in towns and rural areas.The relationship between average first marriage age and educational level shows down first and then up.The average first marriage age of primary education level is the lowest,and the average first marriage age increases with a higher level of education.According to the analysis of contribution rate,the contribution rate of urban areas to the rate of late marriage in our country is the highest.In contrast,the population in rural areas contributes litter to delayed marriage.Compared with the year 2000,the contribution rate of late marriage in urban areas has decreased,while the contribution rate of late marriage in rural areas has increased.The contribution rate of late marriage with different educational levels is complex,and there is a significant difference between males and females,for male,the contribution rate of high school education to late marriage is the largest,and the contribution rate of late marriage decreases with the increase of education level above high school education;for women,the contribution rate of primary school education to late marriage is the lowest,followed by those who have not gone to school,the contribution rate of high school education to late marriage is the highest,the contribution rate of late marriage decreases with the increase of education level above high school education.The contribution rate of late marriage of highly educated men and women tends to converge gradually.
作者
和红
谈甜
HE Hong;TAN Tian(Center for Population and Development Sudies,Renmin University of China,Beijing,100872,China;School of Sociology and Population Studies,Renmin University of China,Beijing,100872,China)
出处
《人口学刊》
CSSCI
北大核心
2021年第5期16-28,共13页
Population Journal
基金
中国人民大学公共健康与疾病预防控制交叉学科重大创新平台成果
北京市社会科学基金项目研究基地重点项目:北京市居民环境意识、环境行为与健康的关系研究(17JDSRA004)
国家留学基金委公派研究生项目(201906360108)。
关键词
平均初婚年龄
晚婚
城镇乡
受教育程度
贡献率
First Marriage Age
Late Marriage
Area
Education Level
Contribution Rate
