摘要
预测指标的敏感性决定了煤层突出危险性预测的准确性,开展预测指标敏感性的研究对煤与瓦斯突出防治工作至关重要。本文以中岭煤矿为研究对象,构建了一套确定局部预测指标敏感性的方法,首先分析煤层实际发生煤与瓦斯突出的规律,进而揭示控制煤与瓦斯突出的敏感因素,在此基础上建立局部预测指标敏感性分析标准;并依据此标准对不同预测指标的敏感性开展现场考察实验。结果表明:钻孔瓦斯涌出初速度q与突出敏感因素地质构造、瓦斯含量、地应力未见明显相关性;钻屑量S与地质构造、地应力具有相关性,而与瓦斯含量未见明显相关性;钻屑解吸指标K 1与上述因素均具有较明显的相关性;q对煤层突出危险性预测敏感性最差,S具有一定的敏感性,K 1对煤层的突出危险性预测敏感性最强。
The sensitivity of prediction index directly determines the accuracy of coal seam outburst risk prediction,research on the sensitivity of predictive indicators is the key to the prevention and control of coal and gas outburst disasters.Taking Zhongling coal mine as the research object,this paper establishes a set of research methods to determine the sensitivity of local prediction indexes.Firstly,the law of coal and gas outburst is analyzed,and then the sensitive factors controlling coal and gas outburst are revealed.On this basis,the sensitivity analysis standard of local predictors is established.According to this standard,field investigation experiments are carried out on the sensitivity of different predictors.There is no obvious correlation between q and the geological structure,gas content and in-situ stress of outburst sensitive factors.There is a certain correlation between cuttings S and geological structure and in-situ stress,but there is no obvious correlation between S and gas content.The cuttings desorption index K 1 has obvious correlation with the above factors.q is the least sensitive to the prediction of outburst risk of coal seam,S has a certain sensitivity,and K 1 is the most sensitive to the prediction of outburst risk of coal seam.
作者
章飞
ZHANG Fei(China Coal Technology Engineering Group Chongqing Research Institute,Chongqing 400039,China)
出处
《中国矿业》
2021年第9期150-155,共6页
China Mining Magazine
关键词
突出灾害防治
煤与瓦斯突出
预测指标
敏感性确定方法
分析标准
coal and gas outburst prevention
coal and gas outburst
prediction index
sensitivity determination method
analytical standard
