摘要
研究干旱变化的特征,有利于预防干旱发生。利用1961~2016年内蒙古境内的气温、降水数据计算得到不同时间尺度的标准化降水蒸散指数,结合趋势分析法、Mann-Kendall突变检验法和消除趋势波动(DFA)分析法,分析不同时间尺度干旱演变趋势及未来干旱预测。结果表明:①内蒙古年际干旱呈现增加趋势,1995年发生突变,由湿润转变为干旱。总体上,内蒙古地区呈现东部干旱程度加重,而西部减缓的趋势。轻旱发生频率较高,且东南部干旱的发生较多。②春、夏和秋季存在明显变干及突变趋势,且突变年份不一致,而冬季有不太明显的变湿趋势。春、夏和秋季干旱发生较为严重且范围较广。③在未来,内蒙古地区干旱将保持现有趋势,干旱仍持续一段时间。
Researches on characteristics of drought variations is helpful to prevent its occurrence.Based on Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index that is calculated by the data of temperature and precipitation of Inner Mongolia from 1961 to 2016 on different time scales.Combined the trend analysis method,and Mann-Kendall mutation test and the Detrended Fluctuation Analysis(DFA),an analysis on the trend of drought evolution on different time scales was conducted and future drought was predicted.The results showed that:(1)The interannual drought in Inner Mongolia showed an increasing trend,which changed from wet to dry in 1995.Overall,the drought degree in the eastern part of Inner Mongolia was aggravating,while the western part was slowing down.The frequency of light drought was higher,and occurrence of drought in southeast was more.(2)It’s obviously become drying in spring,summer and autumn with abrupt change trend,and the change years were not consistent,but in winter there was a less obvious trend of becoming wet.The drought in spring,summer and autumn was more serious and extensive.(3)In the future,the drought in Inner Mongolia will maintain the current trend,and the drought will last for a period of time.
作者
郭晓萌
佟斯琴
包玉海
任晋媛
GUO Xiaomeng;TONG Siqin;BAO Yuhai;REN Jinyuan(School of Geographic Science,Inner Mongolia Normal University,Hohhot 010022,China)
出处
《地理信息世界》
2021年第3期42-48,79,共8页
Geomatics World
基金
国家自然科学基金(地区)项目(42061070)
国家自然科学基金国际(地区)合作与交流项目(41961144019)。
关键词
气象干旱
标准化降水蒸散指数
干旱频率
DFA
内蒙古地区
meteorological drought
standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index
drought frequency
DFA
Inner Mongolia
