摘要
本文通过构建包括11种结构冲击以及2种粘性机制的异质性部门(消费品部门、资本品部门)新凯恩斯动态随机一般均衡(NK-DSGE)模型,详细刻画了中国宏观经济波动的冲击缘由及其传导机制。研究结论显示:(1)无论是消费品部门还是资本品部门,两部门产品市场以及劳动力市场的粘性程度都普遍较高。与产品市场相比较,劳动力市场潜存更高的粘性程度和更强的定价阻力。(2)微观部门异质性冲击对宏观经济的影响具有非对称性。部门专有产品价格加成冲击对主要经济变量的影响方向截然不同,而部门专有技术冲击对主要经济变量的影响程度存在显著差异。(3)资本品部门技术冲击、投资边际效率冲击、消费偏好冲击、货币政策冲击能够解释超过90%的居民消费、居民投资、总产出波动。此外,结构冲击的边际贡献存在较强动态特征,投资边际效率冲击的贡献率普遍显著上升,货币政策冲击的贡献率普遍明显下降。(4)中国实际GDP增长缺口主要由投资边际效率冲击、消费偏好冲击以及货币政策冲击驱动,而名义加成冲击、技术冲击以及财政政策冲击的贡献相对较小,且由投资边际效率冲击以及消费偏好冲击所代表的需求层面冲击与货币政策冲击的贡献方向基本相反。
We construct a two-sector new Keynesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium(NK-DSGE)model with consumption sector(C-sector)and investment sector(I-sector)to capture the source of shocks and its transmitting mechanism that drive economic fluctuation.We finally get some meaningful conclusions as follows.Firstly,no matter for which sector,the degree of stickiness of the product market and the labor market of the two sectors are generally high.Compared with product market,the labor market seems to be more viscous and contain stronger pricing hindrance.Secondly,it is asymmetrical that heterogeneous shocks affect macro-economy.The response direction of main economic variables affected by price markup shocks between the two sectors is quite different,while the response degree of main economic variables affected by technology shocksbetween the two sectors is quite different.Thirdly,technology shocks of I-sector,marginal efficiency shocks of investment,consumer preference shocks,and monetary policy shocks are enough to explain more than 90%volatility of consumption,investment,and aggregate output.In addition,it is prominent that marginal contribution of exogenous shocks to main economic variables is time-varying.The marginal efficiency shocks of investment show a significant upward trend,while the responses of real variables to monetary policy shocks show a significant downward trend.Fourthly,China's real GDP growth gap is mainly driven by marginal efficiency shocks of investment,consumer preference shocks,and monetary policy shocks,while the contribution of nominal markup shocks,technology shocks and fiscal policy shocks is relatively small.In most of the period,the contribution of demand-level shocks represented by marginal efficiency shocks of investment and consumer preference shocks respond contrary to monetary policy shocks.
作者
隋建利
龚凯林
Sui Jianli;Gong Kailin(Quantitative Research Center of Economics,Jilin University,Changchun 130012,China;School of Business,Jilin University,Changchun 130012,China)
出处
《南开经济研究》
CSSCI
北大核心
2021年第3期130-145,共16页
Nankai Economic Studies
基金
国家自然科学基金面上项目“非线性状态空间混频数据模型在中国第三产业结构演变研究中的应用”(71573104)
吉林大学青年学术领袖培育计划项目“非线性状态空间混频数据模型在第三产业结构演进与升级研究中的应用”(2019FRLX10)
吉林大学廉政建设专项研究项目“突发事件中网络舆情的政府监控体系研究”(2020LZY014)
吉林大学学科交叉融合创新培育项目“非线性混频DSGE模型在中国第三产业结构演进与升级研究中的应用”(JLUXKJC2020301)的资助。
