摘要
为预防桥梁施工过程中安全隐患的发生,加强施工风险防控措施,提升风险评估可靠性,结合PC箱梁桥转体施工工序特点及桥梁领域专家专业经验,提出一种融合了优化LEC法的FAHP-云模型风险评估分析方法。依据施工工序,对PC箱梁桥转体施工进行全面风险源辨识,运用层次分析法建立施工风险层次分析模型。基于风险源识别结果,采用模糊层次分析法确定各风险源权重值,为避免多维变量之间的影响,确保各风险源权重值的有效性,利用MATLAB建立基于云模型理论的数模,进一步对所得权重值进行数值模拟。通过观察云图中云滴的离散程度,最终确定风险源有效权重值。将人员伤亡、经济损失、时间损失、社会影响及风险源发生概率5种因素引入传统LEC法,形成优化LEC法。通过优化LEC法确定二级评判计算模型,评定各风险源风险等级。为保证高风险指标的真实性及客观性,将所得风险源等级指标值输入MATLAB逆向云发生器,确定各风险源等级指标期望值。最后,基于模糊综合评判法理论确定整体风险等级,并基于PC箱梁桥转体施工各风险源等级及整体施工风险等级的计算结果,提出相应的风险预控措施,保证桥梁转体施工全过程安全。通过工程实例分析计算,表明了该方法的可行性与有效性。
In order to prevent the occurrence of potential hazards during bridge construction process,strengthen construction risk prevention and control measures,and improve the reliability of risk assessment,combining with the characteristics of PC box girder bridge swivel construction process and the professional experiences of experts in bridge field,a method that integrates the optimized LEC method and FAHP-cloud model risk assessment analysis is proposed.According to the construction process,the PC box girder bridge swivel construction is comprehensively identified as risk sources,and the construction risk analytic hierarchy model is established by using AHP.Based on the result of risk source identification,the weight value of each risk source is determined by using fuzzy AHP.In order to avoid the influence among multi-dimensional variables and ensure the effectiveness of the weight value of each risk source,the numerical model based on cloud model theory is established by MATLAB to conduct the numerical simulation of the obtained weight values.and the effective weight value of the risk source is finally determined by observing the dispersion degree of the cloud drop in the nephogrwam.The 5 factors including casualties,economic loss,time loss,social influence and occurrence probability of risk sources are introduced into the traditional LEC method to form an optimized LEC method.The second-level evaluation calculation model is determined by the optimized LEC method,and the risk level of each risk source is evaluated.For guarantee the authenticity and objectivity of high-risk indicators,the obtained risk source grade indicator values are input into MATLAB reverse cloud generator to determine the expected value of each risk source grade indicator.Finally,the overall risk level is determined based on the theory of fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method,and the corresponding risk pre-control measures are proposed based on the calculated risk source levels of the PC box girder bridge swivel construction and the overall construction risk level to ensure the whole process of the bridge swivel construction safety.The feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed method are proved by the analysis and calculation of engineering examples.
作者
裴元江
史彦伟
李亚非
邱澄
叶亚丽
PEI Yuan-jiang;SHI Yan-wei;LI Ya-fei;QIU Cheng;YE Ya-li(School of Traffic And Civil Engineering,Shandong Jiaotong University,Jinan Shandong 250300,China;Qingdao Traffic Engineering Quality and Safety Supervision Station,Qingdao Shandong 266000,China;China Academy of Transportation Science,Beijing 100029,China)
出处
《公路交通科技》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2021年第8期101-109,共9页
Journal of Highway and Transportation Research and Development
基金
山东省自然科学基金联合项目(ZR2017LEE026)
山东交通学院2021年研究生科技创新项目(2021YK11)。
关键词
桥梁工程
安全风险模型
FAHP-云模型
PC箱梁桥
转体施工
风险防控措施
bridge engineering
safety risk model
FAHP-cloud model
PC box girder bridge
swivel construction
risk prevention and control measure
