摘要
本文以2008~2019年沪深两市A股非金融类上市公司为样本,基于管理层有限理性导致的认知偏差(而非完全理性下的代理冲突),考察投机氛围对公司未来股价崩盘风险的影响,研究发现:投机氛围显著提高了公司股价崩盘风险。进一步研究表明,当高管学习经历丰富、面临的监督较强、公司所在地人口流动量较大时,投机氛围对股价崩盘风险的正向影响减弱。机制检验表明,投机氛围提高了公司的风险承担水平,导致了更为严重的过度投资,从而增加了股价崩盘风险。本研究一方面丰富了股价崩盘风险、投机氛围等相关领域的文献;另一方面对理解投机氛围等非正式制度在公司治理中的作用提供了一定的启示,对降低股价崩盘风险、维护金融市场稳定也具有重要的参考价值。
This paper takes A-share listed companies in Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets from 2008 to 2019 as a sample,based on the cognitive bias caused by the management's bounded rationality(rather than the agency conflict under the complete rationality),to investigate the impact of speculative atmosphere on stock price crash risk.The results show that speculative atmosphere significantly improves the stock price crash risk in the future.Further research shows that the positive impact of speculative atmosphere on stock price crash risk is weakened when executives have rich learning experience and face strong supervision,and large population flow in the company's location.The mechanism test shows that speculative atmosphere improves the risk-taking level of the company and leads to more serious over-investment behavior,thus increases the stock price crash risk.On the one hand,this study enriches the literature of stock price crash risk and speculative atmosphere;on the other hand,it also provides some enlightenment for understanding the role of informal institutions such as speculative atmosphere in corporate governance,and it has important reference value for reducing stock price crash risk and maintaining financial market stability.
作者
曹丰
张雪燕
CAO Feng;ZHANG Xueyan(School of Business,Hunan University,Changsha 410082,China)
出处
《中南财经政法大学学报》
CSSCI
北大核心
2021年第5期16-27,158,159,共14页
Journal of Zhongnan University of Economics and Law
基金
国家自然科学基金项目“交易所问询函监管、上市公司信息披露质量与股票市场定价效率”(71972068)
国家自然科学基金项目“机构投资者股权集中度影响股价崩盘风险的传导路径研究”(71602053)
湖南省自然科学基金项目“控股股东股权质押对中小股东的利益侵占研究”(2018JJ3087)
财政部高端会计人才(学术类)培养项目阶段性研究成果。
关键词
股价崩盘风险
投机氛围
有限理性
风险承担
过度投资
Stock Price Crash Risk
Speculative Atmosphere
Bounded Rationality
Risk-taking
Over-investment
