摘要
Accident causation analysis is of great importance for accident prevention.In order to improve the aviation safety,a new analysis method of aviation accident causation based on complex network theory is proposed in this paper.Through selecting 257 accident investigation reports,45 causative factors and nine accident types are obtained by the three-level coding process of the grounded theory,and the interaction of these factors is analyzed based on the“2-4”model.Accordingly,the aviation accident causation network is constructed based on complex network theory which has scale-free characteristics and small-world properties,the characteristics of causative factors are analyzed by the topology of the network,and the key causative factors of the accidents are identified by the technique for order of preference by similarity to ideal solution(TOPSIS)method.The comparison results show that the method proposed in this paper has the advantages of independent of expert experience,quantitative analysis of accident causative factors and statistical analysis of a lot of accident data,and it has better applicability and advancement.
为提高航空安全,提出了一种基于复杂网络理论的航空事故致因分析方法。通过选取257份事故调查报告,采用扎根理论的三级编码过程,得到了45个致因因素和9个事故类型,并基于“2-4”模型分析了这些因素之间的相互作用。在此基础上,基于复杂网络理论构建了航空事故致因网络,该网络具有无标度特性和小世界效应,并通过网络拓扑结构分析了致因因素的特征,采用TOPSIS方法识别了事故的关键致因。结果表明,本文提出的方法具有不依赖专家经验、定量分析事故致因因素和统计分析大量事故数据的优点,有较好的适用性和先进性。
基金
supported by the Civil Aviation Joint Fund of National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.U1533112)。
