摘要
为了解西藏春小麦物候期变化及其与气候变化的关系,利用1991—2020年西藏日喀则农业气象观测站观测的春小麦生育期和气象资料,采用线性回归、相关系数、Mann-Kendall等方法,分析了西藏春小麦生育期变化特征,并讨论了影响其变化的主导气象因子。结果表明,在1991—2020年期间,西藏春小麦生长季内降水量(Pr)、相对湿度(RH)和日照时数(S)表现为下降趋势,平均最低气温(Tmin)升温率明显大于平均最高气温(Tmax)升温率,平均气温(Tm)、≥0℃积温(∑T0)和平均风速(Ws)均呈增加趋势。营养生长期、生殖生长期以及全生育期的热量资源(Tm、Tmax、Tmin、∑T0)和Ws都表现为增加趋势,S与RH趋于减少;Pr在营养生长期增多,在生殖生长期减少,在全生育期略有增加。春小麦所有生育时期都表现为推迟趋势,平均每10年推迟2.33~13.36 d,以乳熟期推迟最明显;播种—出苗、拔节—孕穗2个生育阶段天数对气候变化响应不明显,开花—乳熟期天数以11.03 d·10 a^(-1)的速度显著延长,其他生育阶段天数均呈减少趋势;营养生长期、生殖生长期以及全生育期天数均呈减少趋势。除开花期外,其他生育时期都发生了推迟的气候突变,突变时间主要出现在21世纪前10年的中后期;只有三叶—分蘖、分蘖—拔节、开花—乳熟、乳熟—成熟4个生育阶段天数在21世纪初出现了气候突变。影响春小麦营养生长期、全生育期天数的主导因子是Tm,次要因子为∑T0,而∑T0却是影响生殖生长期天数的主导因子,Tm为次要因子。近30年西藏春小麦营养生长期、生殖生长期以及全生育期天数减少,主要是因为Tm显著升高造成的。
In order to understand the phenological changes of spring wheat in Tibet and its relationship with climate change,using the spring wheat growth period and meteorological data observed at the Tibetan Shigatse Agricultural Meteorological Observatory Station from 1991 to 2020,the characteristics of the changes in the growth period of spring wheat in Tibet were analyzed using linear regression,correlation coefficient and Mann-Kendall methods,and the dominant factors influencing the changes were discussed.The results showed that during the period 1991-2020,The precipitation(Pr),relative humidity(RH)and sunshine duration(S)of spring wheat growing season in Tibet showed a decreasing trend;the warming rate of mean minimum temperature(Tmin)was significantly greater than that of the mean maximum temperature(Tmax);and the mean temperature(Tm),above 0℃cumulative temperature(∑T0)and mean wind speed(Ws)showed an increasing trend.The heat resources(T_(m),T_(max),T_(min),∑T0)and Ws during the vegetative growth period(VGP),reproductive growth period(RGP)and whole growth period(WGP)showed an increasing trend,while S and RH tended to decrease;Pr increased in VGP,decreased in RGP,and slightly increased in WGP.The results showed that all growth stages of spring wheat presented a delayed trend,with an average of 2.33-13.36 days per decade,especially at milk ripening stage.The days of seedling-emergence and jointing-booting had no obvious response to climate change;The days of flowering-milk ripening period was significantly increased with a rate of 11.03 days per decade,while days of all other growth period showed a shortened trend,and days of VGP,RGP,and WGP appeared the shortened trends.Except for flowering,sudden climate changes occurred at all growth stages,which mainly occurred in the middle and late period of the first 10 years of the 21st century.Sudden climate changes appeared in the beginning of the 21st century only at four growth stages:three leaf-tillering,tillering-jointing,flowering-milk ripening,and milk ripening-maturity.The dominant factor affecting days of VGP and WGP of spring wheat was Tm,and the secondary factor was∑T0,while∑T0was the dominant factor affecting days of RGP,and Tm was the secondary factor.In the past 30 years,the days of VGP,RGP and WGP of spring wheat in Tibet has been shortened,mainly cue to the significant increasing in T_(m).
作者
杜军
高佳佳
索朗塔杰
次旺顿珠
DU Jun;GAO Jiajia;SONAM Tajie;TSEWANG Thondup(Tibet Institute of Plateau Atmospheric and Environmental Science Research,Lhasa,Tibet 850001,China;Tibet Key laboratory of Plateau Atmospheric and Environmental Science Research,Lhasa,Tibet 850001,China;Tibet Autonomous Region Climate Centre,Lhasa,Tibet 850001,China)
出处
《麦类作物学报》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2021年第8期1044-1054,共11页
Journal of Triticeae Crops
基金
第二次青藏高原综合科学考察研究项目(2020QZKK0106)
2019年西藏自治区科技重点研发计划项目。
关键词
春小麦
生育期
气候变化
影响因子
西藏高原
Spring wheat
Growth period
Climate change
Impact factor
Tibetan plateau
