摘要
[目的/意义]科技迷雾是误导科技决策的氛围。讨论科技迷雾的特征规律,有助于预防决策误判、完善情报体系。[方法/过程]探讨美国在冷战时期和全球化时期不同的科技迷雾策略,对比其成败原因,梳理科技迷雾的基本流程,从无迷雾到有迷雾的4种科技研发情景,总结科技迷雾的形成前提,讨论科技迷雾的应对策略。[结果/结论]科技迷雾在双方科技水平接近的时候最易出现。在科技“跟跑”阶段,最优策略是跟随前人已有经验,吸收和借鉴成功的研发技术;在科技“并跑”阶段,最优策略是保持独立自主,以自身客观条件作为研发决策的依据;在科技“领跑”阶段,要慎重应对科技迷雾,提防弄巧成拙。
[Purpose/Significance]Science and Technology(S&T)pseudo-information is a kind of information atmosphere inducing scientific and technological decision-making mistakes.Discussing the characteristics and laws of S&T pseudo-information can help to prevent misjudgment in decision-making and improve the intelligence system.[Method/Process]This paper discusses the different technology fog strategies of the United States during the cold war and globalization,compares their success and failure reasons,and combs the basic process of technology fog.Four kinds of technology R&D scene from without misinformation to misinformation are summarized.How to shape S&T misinformation was discovered,and how to deal with it was discussed.[Result/Conclusion]The S&T pseudo-information is most likely to appear when the level of science and technology is close.In the stage of"following",the best strategy is to follow the previous experience,absorb,learn from and digest the successful R&D technology.In the stage of"paralleling",the best strategy is to maintain independence,and take its own objective conditions as the basis for R&D decision.we should be careful to deal with S&T pseudo-information and guard against self defeating.
作者
苏鹏
王延飞
Su Peng;Wang Yanfei(Department of Information Management,Peking University,Beijing 100871)
出处
《情报杂志》
CSSCI
北大核心
2021年第9期45-51,共7页
Journal of Intelligence
基金
国家社会科学基金重大项目“面向国家战略的情报学教育与发展研究”的阶段性研究成果(编号:20&ZD332)。
关键词
科技迷雾
信息迷雾
科技研发
科技决策
情报失误
决策误导
pseudo-information in S&T
pseudo-information
technology R&D
S&T decision-making
intelligence error
mislead decision-making
