摘要
从投资收益差角度研究了美元作为国际货币对美国贸易逆差的影响,指出美国通过对外投资不仅达到了输出美元的目的,而且不会削弱美元的国际地位,但会造成美国持续的贸易逆差。采用2000—2019年各国持有的美元外汇增加量之和及美国贸易逆差额季度数据进行了VAR分析。正交化的脉冲响应结果显示,各国持有的美元外汇储备增加量之和的一次正向冲击会对美国贸易逆差额产生3—5年的正向影响。实证结果表明,美国通过对外投资向其他国家输送美元获得收益差会造成美国持续的贸易逆差。这一实证结论在变换变量的先后次序和改变滞后期的脉冲响应中都没有发生太大变化,说明研究结论是稳健的。在此基础上,从改革国际货币体系、推进人民币国际化、发展中国无风险金融资产等角度提出对策建议。
From the perspective of investment income difference,this paper studied the impact of the US dollar as an international currency on the US trade deficit,and pointed out that the US not only achieves the purpose of exporting US dollars through foreign investment,but also will not weaken the US dollar’s international status,however,it will cause a sustained trade deficit in the United States.This paper used the quarterly data from 2000 to 2019 that the sum of the increase of the US dollar foreign exchange reserve held by every countries and the US trade deficit to conduct a VAR analysis.The orthogonal impulse response results show that one positive impulse from the sum of US dollar foreign exchange reserves held by every countries will have a positive impact on the US trade deficit for 3-5 years.The empirical results show that the US income difference obtained by sending US dollars to other countries through foreign investment will lead to the sustained trade deficit of the United States.This empirical conclusion has not changed much after changing the sequence of variables and the lag period,indicating that the research conclusion is robust.On this basis,countermeasures and suggestions are put forward from the perspectives of reforming the international monetary system,promoting the internationalization of RMB,and developing China’s risk-free financial assets.
作者
韩保庆
HAN Bao-qing(School of Economics,Renmin University of China,Beijing 100872)
出处
《价格月刊》
北大核心
2021年第10期15-23,共9页
基金
中国人民大学科学研究基金(中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助,编号:19XNH055)。
