摘要
房产税是我国财税体制改革的重大举措,其政策核心指向是抑制住房投机,来同时达到"房住"和"不炒"两个目标。与以往研究仅关注住房整体价格效应不同,本文利用2011年上海房产税试点的政策,基于人均60平方米免税的特殊规定,采用上海30万套住房微观数据和群聚分析法(bunching),首次估计了房产税对住房投机行为的"精准"打击作用。结果显示,在人均60平方米的免税门槛附近,投机性购房减少了2.94平方米,用于购房的总货币资产减少了3.92%,应税总值的弹性为-14,这意味着7%的房产税税率就可以完全挤出投机性购房;即使把合买住房的干扰因素排除在外,上述结论依然成立。本文对即将推出的《房地产税》立法、税率设定、地方主体税种建设等都有直接的借鉴意义。
Within the reform of China’s tax contribution system,property tax is an important measure,the central policy of which is to inhibit housing speculation in order to guarantee the housing demand of residents at fair prices.Unlike previous studies that have only focused on the effect of overall housing market prices,this paper uses Shanghai’s pilot property tax policy of January 2011 based on the special provision of 60 square metres of tax exemption per capita,300,000 microdata of Shanghai housing,and the bunching analysis method,to estimate for the first time the effect of the"precise"impact of property tax on housing speculation.The results suggest that near the tax-free threshold of 60 square metres per capita,the property tax policy reduced the speculative purchase of housing by 2.94 square metres,the total monetary assets used in this purchase decreased by 3.92%,and the elasticity of the total taxable value was up to-14,implying that a property tax rate of 7%could completely eliminate speculative purchases of housing.Even if the disruptive factors related to the joint purchase of housing are excluded,the above conclusion remains valid.This work is significant for the upcoming"real property tax"legislation,the setting of tax rates and the construction of the main local tax categories.
作者
张航
范子英
Zhang Hang;Fan Ziying
出处
《世界经济》
CSSCI
北大核心
2021年第9期154-179,共26页
The Journal of World Economy
基金
国家社会科学基金重大项目“全面推进生态创新的财税政策体系研究”(19ZDA076)
国家自然科学基金青年项目“房产税对住房投机的抑制作用及其财富再分配效应研究”(72003066)的资助。
关键词
房产税
住房投机
群聚分析法
property tax
housing speculation
bunching analysis
