摘要
生态环境作为旅游业发展的资源基础和根本保障,对旅游目的地的可持续发展日益重要。为研究旅游经济与生态环境间的动态关系,以新疆为例,运用综合评价模型测算旅游经济与生态环境综合得分,建立VAR模型,通过ADF检验、协整检验、误差修正模型、脉冲响应和方差分解等方法分析旅游经济与生态环境间的互动关系。得到以下结论:2001—2019年新疆生态环境综合评价得分增长速度较慢,旅游经济综合得分呈波动上升态势,二者相互促进,相互影响;旅游经济与生态环境之间存在着长期稳定的协整关系,旅游经济对生态环境的影响是正向的,在前期较为显著,滞后期为5~6个月;旅游经济在前期主要受自身影响,后期生态环境对旅游经济的贡献率不断加大。据此提出大力发展生态旅游、完善生态补偿机制、开启智慧旅游等建议。
As the resource base and fundamental guarantee of tourism development, ecological environment is increasingly significant for the sustainable development of tourism destinations. In order to study the dynamic relationship between tourism economy and ecological environment, taking Xinjiang as an example, the comprehensive evaluation model was used to calculate the comprehensive scores of tourism economy and ecological environment, the VAR model was established, and the interactive relationship between tourism economy and ecological environment was analyzed through ADF test, co-integration test, error correction model, impulse response and variance decomposition. It is proved that: the growth rate of comprehensive evaluation score of ecological environment in Xinjiang was slow, and the comprehensive score of tourism economy showed a fluctuating upward trend during 2001-2019, which promoted and influenced each other. There existed a long-term and stable co-integration relationship between tourism economy and ecological environment. The impact of tourism economy on the ecological environment was positive, which was more prominent in the early stage,and the lag period was 5-6 months;tourism economy was primarily affected by itself in the early stage, and the contribution rate of ecological environment to the tourism economy in the later stage was increasing. Based on this, the authors put forward some suggestions,such as developing ecotourism, perfecting ecotourism compensation mechanism and opening up intelligent tourism.
作者
张茜茜
喻晓玲
孙婉晴
ZHANG Xixi;YU Xiaoling;SUN Wanqing(College of Economics and Management,Tarim University,Alar,Xinjiang 843300)
出处
《塔里木大学学报》
2021年第3期96-106,共11页
Journal of Tarim University
基金
国家科技支撑计划课题“环塔里木文化旅游综合服务系统及应用”(2013BAH27F04)。
关键词
旅游经济
生态环境
VAR模型
新疆
tourism economy
ecological environment
VAR model
Xinjiang
