摘要
利用实况资料、卫星观测资料、雷达观测资料、数值预报资料及NCEP/NCAR资料,分析研究2013年7月13—15日“苏力”台风暴雨,结果表明:“苏力”登陆后强降水显著偏于中心南侧或前进方向左侧,低压中心移过地区降水很弱,这与垂直速度、散度、水汽通量及水汽通量散度有密切关系;后期强降水向东偏北移动,主要与高空低槽东移、副热带高压西伸及低空急流日变化有关;EC模式预报的副高强度偏弱,导致台风路径预报偏东,模式输出的较强降水位置与实况有较大出入,实际预报中预报员需连续跟踪和监测实况天气图、数值预报模式变化,并不断订正模式误差才能对暴雨做出较准确的预报判断。
Based on the actual data,satellite observation data,radar observation data,numerical prediction data and NCEP/NCAR data,the rainstorm of"Suli"typhoon from July 13 to 15,2013 is analyzed and studied.The results show that the heavy precipitation after"Suli"landing is significantly biased to the south of the center or to the left of the forward direction,and the precipitation in the area where the lowpressure center moves is very weak,which is related to the vertical velocity,divergence Water vapor flux is closely related to water vapor flux divergence;In the later stage,the heavy precipitation moved east to the north,which was mainly related to the eastward movement of the upper and lower trough,the westward extension of the subtropical high and the diurnal variation of the low-level jet;The weak intensity of the subtropical high predicted by the EC model leads to the east of the typhoon track forecast,and the strong precipitation position output by the model is also quite different from the actual situation.In the actual forecast,the forecasters need to continuously track and monitor the changes of the actual weather map and numerical forecast model,and constantly correct the model error before they can make a more accurate forecast judgment on these rainstorms.
作者
袁冬美
钟思奕
YUAN Dong-mei(Yingtan Meteorological Bureau,Yingtan,Jiangxi 335000)
出处
《农业灾害研究》
2021年第6期121-124,126,共5页
Journal of Agricultural Catastrophology
关键词
台风
不对称性
模式检验
Typhoon
Asymmetry
Pattern checking
