摘要
为了解我国消费者对进口羊肉产品的需求偏好,基于2010—2019年的羊肉进口贸易月度数据,运用区分来源及特征属性的Rotterdam模型估算了我国羊肉产品的进口需求弹性。产品加总性检验结果表明:在我国羊肉进口市场上,不同来源国产品之间、带骨与去骨产品之间以及冷鲜与冷冻产品之间均存在相对独立的偏好,应将不同来源国及不同特征属性的羊肉产品进行区分并归入同一个需求系统进行分析。实证结果表明:如果未来我国羊肉进口支出保持增长的趋势,那么不同来源国及具备不同特征属性的羊肉产品进口结构将继续发生改变,新西兰鲜或冷带骨绵羊肉进口的增长潜力最大,不同类别羊肉产品之间的替代性较弱,应对不同来源国具备不同特征属性的羊肉产品制定差异化的进口策略,并根据需求偏好调整及优化不同羊肉产品在进出口贸易中的数量结构。
In order to obtain a better understanding of demand preference for imported sheep meat products among Chinese consumers,based on monthly import data from 2010 to 2019,a source and attribute differentiated Rotterdam model is employed to estimate demand for imported sheep meat products in China.Product aggregation tests indicate,that in Chinese sheep meat import market,relatively independent preferences exist between sheep meat products from different sources,between bone-in versus boneless cuts,and between chilled versus frozen cuts,implicating products should be disaggregated by source and attribute and included in one system for analysis.Empirical analysis suggests that if the expenditures for sheep meat imports in China continue to soar in the future,the structure of sheep meat imports among different sources and product attributes will continue to change.Chilled bone-in sheep meat imported from New Zealand would have the greatest growth potential.Substitutions between different categories of sheep meat products are weak,indicating that the diversified trade strategies should be formulated and it is necessary to adjust and optimize the structure of sheep meat imports and exports according to corresponding demand preferences.
作者
李若琦
付文阁
LI Ruoqi;FU Wenge(College of Economics and Management,China Agricultural University,University,Beijing 100193,China)
出处
《中国农业大学学报》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2021年第9期266-276,共11页
Journal of China Agricultural University
基金
国家现代农业产业技术体系(CARS-38)。
