摘要
克什米尔地区是恐怖主义问题较为严重的地区之一,也是我国周边较为突出的不稳定区域。基于GTD数据和开源地理空间数据,利用空间自相关分析、核密度估计等方法对克什米尔地区恐怖袭击的时间演化、空间分布特征以及影响因素进行了分析。研究发现,一是该地区恐怖活动大致分为4个阶段,且不同阶段袭击的目标和使用的武器各有差异,其性质由最初谋求地区独立的民族分裂主义逐渐转向宗教极端主义,恐袭暴力程度不断增加;二是空间分布具有显著聚集性,主要聚集在克什米尔河谷地带;三是该地区恐怖活动主要与国际泛伊斯兰主义、政府对地区民主自治权力的压制、当地经济文化发展水平、内部宗教矛盾、印巴冲突及周边局势的多重影响因素有关。
Kashmir is one of the regions facing the threat of severe terrorism,and it is also a prominent unstable region around China.Based on GTD data and open source geospatial data,spatial autocorrelation analysis and kernel density estimation were used to analyze the temporal evolution,spatial distribution characteristics and influencing factors of terrorist attacks in Kashmir region.It is found that the terrorist attacks in the region is roughly divided into four stages,with different stage featured by varied attack target and weapon uses.Besides,its nature has gradually turned from the original regional independent ethnic separatist colors to religious extremism,with the attack violent degree increasing.Further,its spatial distribution exhibits significant aggregation,where the Kashmir valley is the main gathering location.Terrorist attacks in this region are mainly related to international pan-Islamism,government’s suppression of regional democratic autonomy,local economic and cultural development level,internal religious contradictions,India-Pakistan conflict and multiple influencing factors of the surrounding situation.
作者
杜树坤
张晶
公茂玉
李华
DU Shukun;ZHANG Jing;GONG Maoyu;LI Hua(Information Engineering University, Zhengzhou 450001, China;Unit 61363, Xi’an 710654, China)
出处
《信息工程大学学报》
2021年第4期478-484,共7页
Journal of Information Engineering University
基金
国家自然科学基金资助项目(41301125)。
关键词
克什米尔
恐怖袭击
时间演化
空间分布
影响因素
Kashmir
terrorist attack
time evolution
spatial distribution
impact factor
