摘要
工业向来对能源消费需求较高,而工业能源消耗往往伴随着污染物的排放,随着上海市碳达峰目标的提出,对工业能源消费量的控制越来越严格。根据上海市统计年鉴,选取2000—2019年的GDP总量和工业能源消费量的数据,运用向量自回归模型对所选取数据的关系做格兰杰因果检验、脉冲响应和方差分解分析。研究表明,工业能源消费是上海市GDP总量的格兰杰原因,脉冲响应和方差分解的结果显示工业能源消费对上海市GDP总量的影响逐渐下降,说明上海市在兼顾经济发展的前提下,实现工业领域的碳达峰是可行的。
The industry has always had a high demand for energy consumption,and the industrial energy consumption is often accompanied by the emission of pollutants.With the proposed objectives of Shanghai emission peak,the control of industrial energy consumption has become more and more stringent.The data of gross domestic product(GDP)and industrial energy consumption from 2000 to 2019 are selected from Shanghai Statistical Yearbook.The vector autoregressive model is applied to do the Granger causality test,impulse response and variance decomposition analysis on the relationship between the selected data.The results show that industrial energy consumption is the Granger cause of Shanghai's GDP.The results of impulse response and variance decomposition indicate that the impact of industrial energy consumption on Shanghai's total GDP decreases gradually.Therefore,it is feasible to achieve the emission peak in the industrial field under the premise of taking into account economic development in Shanghai.
作者
毛胜赢
王玉芳(指导)
MAO Shengying;WANG Yufang(School of Business,Shanghai Dianji University,Shanghai 201306,China)
出处
《上海电机学院学报》
2021年第5期305-310,共6页
Journal of Shanghai Dianji University
关键词
工业能源消费
经济增长
关系检验
向量自回归(VAR)
industrial energy consumption
economic growth
relationship test
vector autoregression(VAR)
