摘要
利率对宏观经济均衡和资源配置有重要导向意义。央行确定政策利率要符合经济规律、宏观调控和跨周期设计需要。目前,中国的真实利率略低于经济增速,处于较为合理水平。中国已形成较为完整的市场化利率体系,主要通过货币政策工具调节银行体系流动性,释放政策利率调控信号,在利率走廊的辅助下,引导市场基准利率以政策利率为中枢运行,并通过银行体系传导至贷款利率,调节和优化资源配置,实现货币政策目标。中国具备继续实施正常货币政策的条件,将尽可能地延长正常货币政策的时间,目前不需要实施资产购买操作。在市场化利率体系中,收益率曲线非常重要,它反映利率由短及长的期限结构,可为各类金融产品和市场主体提供定价参考。收益率曲线的短端为货币市场基准利率,直接受央行货币政策操作的影响;长端则为国债收益率,主要反映市场对未来宏观经济走势的预期。经过多年发展,我国的国债收益率曲线应用日益广泛,整体趋于成熟,而在市场基础方面还有进一步提升的空间。
Interest rate is the price of funds and an important variable in the macro-economy.It has great significance for macroeconomic equilibrium and resource allocation.In theory,the natural interest rate equals to the real interest rate when aggregate supply and demand reaches equilibrium.In practice,interest rate directly affects saving and consumption behavior of households,investment and financing decisions of enterprises,as well as import export and balance of payments,and in turn plays an important role in guiding macroeconomic operation.The equilibrium interest rate is determined by market supply and demand,reflecting a combined effect of saving,investment and financing behavior of market entities,such as enterprises,households and financial institutions,in the financial market.In the long run,the interest rate level is supposed to approach the natural interest rate.The central bank should adjust the policy rate to comply with the economic principle,the need of macroeconomic management and cross-cycle policy design.Now China's real interest rate is slightly lower than its economic growth rate and is at a relatively reasonable level.China keeps on promoting the market-based reform of interest rate,which not only adapts to China's actual conditions,but also basically conforms to international practices.While orderly lifting previous restrictions on interest rate,China attaches great importance on the establishment of market-based interest rate system,promoting the critical role of the market interest rate in guiding macroeconomic operation.China has already established a relatively comprehensive market-based interest rate system.The central bank mainly uses monetary policy tools to adjust liquidity of the banking system,and releases policy rate signals.With the assistance of interest rate corridors,the central bank guides market benchmark interest rate fluctuating around the policy rate,and then transmits to the loan interest rate through the banking system,guiding the supply and demand of funds and the allocation of resources,and achieving monetary policy goals.Recently,the People's Bank of China launched an electronic trading mechanism for the Standing Lending Facility(SLF),to better consolidate the ceiling of the interest rate corridor.In China's market-based interest rate system,some important interest rates may include:the open market operation interest rate as the central bank's short-term policy rate,the medium-term lending facility(MLF)interest rate as the medium-term policy rate,loan prime rate(LPR),reserve interest rate,and Shanghai Interbank Offered Rate(Shibor),etc.In addition,the benchmark deposit rate has played an important role in the past,which has provided an important reference for financial institutions to set their own deposit rates.Now the 1-year benchmark deposit rate in China is 1.5%,financial institutions could either add or minus basis points to the benchmark to set their own deposit rates.This is kind of a"golden-rule level",which meets the need of cross-cycle policy design.China's yield curve has approached to be mature.In a market-based interest rate system,the benchmark yield curve has great importance,and could provide pricing reference for various financial products and market entities.The yield curve reflects the interest rate term structure from short-term to long-term,and is composed of a series of major market benchmark interest rates.The short end of the yield curve is the overnight and 7-day repo interest rate DR.The central bank could inject base money through open market operations,which directly affect the short-term market benchmark interest rates.The long end of the yield curve is the Treasury bond yield,formed by market transactions,which is mainly based on market expectations of future macroeconomic trends.The investors and policy makers could observe important market information through the Treasury bond yield.A mature yield curve can play an active role in reflecting changes in macroeconomic growth and inflation.In recent years,the compilation and release of China's Treasury bond yield curve has become more mature and the yield curve is widely used.At the same time,the correlation between China and the United States'Treasury bond yields has increased.However,considering the size,turnover rate,and bid-ask spread of the Treasury market,there is still room for improvement in the market basis of China's Treasury bond yield curve compared with the developed markets.In addition,the asset purchase tool is an operation when the central bank has limited choice during financial crisis.Central banks should avoid implementing the asset purchase tool for too long,for it will cause many problems.If it must be implemented,central banks should adhere to three principles:aiming to help the market back to normal,moving ahead of the market as much as possible,and reducing the scale and duration of asset purchase as much as possible.At present,China has the conditions to implement a normal monetary policy for a longer period,and there is no need to implement asset purchase operation right now.The People's Bank of China will further deepen the market-based interest rate reform,improve the formation and transmission mechanism of market-based interest rates,promote central bank policy rate system,and strengthen the cultivation of market benchmark interest rates.Meanwhile,the PBC will also continue to strengthen financial regulation,improve business environment,promote hard budget constraints,forestall financial risks,and provide a more favorable condition for further market-based interest rate reform.
作者
易纲
YI Gang(The People’s Bank of China)
出处
《金融研究》
CSSCI
北大核心
2021年第9期1-11,共11页
Journal of Financial Research
关键词
利率
市场化改革
利率体系
收益率曲线
Interest Rate
Market-based Reform
Interest Rate System
Yield Curve
