摘要
风力作为清洁能源之一,越来越普遍地用于发电,但是由于风资源的不确定性,增加了风电功率预测的难度。课题组采用了一种基于指数平滑法的风功率预测模型,根据历史风功率数据,分别采用一次指数平滑和二次指数平滑对风电功率进行预测,最后通过算例进行风功率预测并进行误差分析,验证了所提方法的可行性。
As one of the clean energy,wind power is more and more widely used in power generation,but the uncertainty of wind resources increases the difficulty of wind power prediction.In this research,a wind power prediction model based on exponential smoothing method is adopted.According to the historical wind power data,the primary exponential smoothing and secondary exponential smoothing are used to predict the wind power respectively.Finally,an example is given to predict the wind power and analyze the error.The feasibility of the proposed method is verified.
作者
徐彦农
王一帆
王浩淳
田辰蔚
张兆欣
李昕潞
Xu Yannong;Wang Yifan;Wang Haochun;Tian Chenwei;Zhang Zhaoxin;Li Xinlu(China University of Mining and Technology,Beijing 100083)
基金
中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金
中国矿业大学(北京)大学生创新训练项目(C202004922)。
关键词
风电功率
预测
一次指数平滑
二次指数平滑
wind power
prediction
primary exponential smoothing
secondary exponential smoothing
