摘要
近些年来,国际政治学者对于"预测"的分析和讨论逐渐增多。学界对于国际政治研究的"预测"存在着较深刻的误解,或是批评国际政治学界方法单一,未能"预测"某一重大政治事件的走向,或是批评国际政治研究"忽视历史研究",导致预测失败。国际政治研究学科主要关注"体系"层次的"解释",而非某一具体事件的"预测"。尽管学者们也在尝试"预测",但是"预测"可以分为形势评估、偏好归类和概率判断三种类型,应当根据不同类型运用"因果联系"和"相关性联系"展开分析。国际政治的"预测"研究仍然存在诸多挑战,全面且准确地进行国际政治"预测",仍然需要时间和耐心。
In recent years,scholars of international politics have produced a growing number of analyses and discussions of prediction.International political research suffers from the academic community’s profound misunderstanding of"predictions."This field has come under fire from some for its unitary methodology and inability to predict the course of some major political event,while others criticize it for neglecting the study of history and the consequent failure of theirpredictions.The discipline of international politics is mainly concerned with explanations at the systemic level rather than predictions of a specific event.Although scholars do try to make predictions,their predictions fall into three categories:assessment of trends,classification of preferences and judgment of probabilities.Each type should be analyzed using causal and correlative linkages.Many challenges still confront the study of prediction in international politics,and time and patience are still required to make comprehensive and accurate predictions in this field.
出处
《中国社会科学评价》
CSSCI
2021年第3期72-82,158,159,共13页
China Social Science Review
