摘要
RCEP作为世界上最大的自由贸易协定,它的签署必将会使世界贸易格局发生重大的变化,从而影响到各国农业部门的出口贸易。一方面,它拓宽了农产品的贸易市场,为各国农产品对外贸易的发展创造了良好机遇;另一方面,它也使各国不得不面对更强大的竞争对手,从而对本国农业部门造成一定的威胁。中国一直以来都是农业大国,但近年来农产品贸易存在着巨大的逆差,且逆差逐年增大,这表明中国农产品的国际竞争力不断下降。基于1990—2019年RCEP成员国的贸易数据,计算出其竞争优势指数、国际市场份额、对称比较优势指数和贸易互补指数、贸易竞争指数,衡量出各国农产品的国际竞争力,并对这些数据进行比较分析。研究发现,RCEP成员国中,新西兰和澳大利亚具有较强的农产品国际竞争力,而日本和韩国的农产品国际竞争力非常弱,中国和东盟农产品国际竞争力较弱;加入RCEP后,中国的农产品市场将会受到来自澳大利亚、新西兰农产品的严重冲击,影响中国农业出口结构。最后,结合中国实际情况,提出了相关政策建议。
As the largest free trade agreement in the world,the signing of RCEP will surely cause major changes in the world trade pattern,which will also affect the export of the agricultural sectors of member countries.On the one hand,it broadens the agricultural products trade market and creates a good opportunity for the development of foreign trade of agricultural products in various countries.On the other hand,it also forces countries to face stronger competitors,thus posing a threat to their own agricultural sector.China has always been a big agricultural country,however,the agricultural products trade has a huge trade deficit in China,and the deficit has been increasing year by year,this showed that the international competitiveness of China’s agricultural products is declining.Based on the trade data of RCEP member countries from 1990 to2019,the competitive advantage index,international market share,symmetrical comparative advantage index,trade complementarity index,and trade competition index were calculated,the international competitiveness of member countries’agricultural products were measured,and these data were compared and analyzed.The results showed that among RCEP member countries,New Zealand and Australia have strong international competitiveness of agricultural products,while Japan and South Korea have very weak international competitiveness of agricultural products,and China and ASEAN have weaker international competitiveness of agricultural products;after joining the RCEP,China’s agricultural products market will be severely impacted by agricultural products from Australia and New Zealand,and the export structure of China’s agricultural products will be affected.Finally,based on the actual situation in China,relevant policy suggestions were put forward.
作者
李佳敏
何伟
Li Jiamin;He Wei(Economics and Management School,Beijing University of Agriculture/Research Base of Beijing New Rural Construction,Beijing 102206)
出处
《农业展望》
2021年第8期172-177,共6页
Agricultural Outlook
基金
现代农业产业技术体系北京市奶牛创新团队项目。
关键词
RCEP协议
国际竞争力
农产品贸易
RCEP agreement
international competitiveness
agricultural products trade
