摘要
利用青海省共和县气象局观测1961—2020年的逐日最低气温资料,采用线性气候趋势、M-K气候突变等数理统计方法,分析了共和地区终霜冻的气候变化特征。结果表明:1961—2020年共和地区≤0℃霜冻的终日呈现极显著提前的趋势;终霜日的变异系数为9.5%,80%的保证率在5月3日;共和地区平均终霜冻日于1985年发生了提前突变。
Based on the daily minimum temperature data observed by the Meteorological Bureau of Gonghe County,Qinghai Province from 1961 to 2020, the climate change characteristics of final frost in Gonghe area are analyzed by using mathematical statistical methods such as linear climate trend and m-k climate catastrophe. The results show that the whole day of frost ≤0℃ in the Republic area shows a very significant advance trend from 1961 to 2020;the coefficient of variation on the final frost day is 9.5%, and the guarantee rate of 80% is on May 3;the average final frost day in Gonghe area had an early mutation in 1985.
作者
娄仲山
LOU Zhong-shan(Qinghai Gonghe County Meteorological Bureau,Gonghe,Qinghai 813099)
出处
《农业灾害研究》
2021年第7期42-44,共3页
Journal of Agricultural Catastrophology
关键词
终霜冻
气候特征
变化趋势
共和
Final frost
Climatic characteristics
Change trend
Republic
