摘要
雄安新区2050年建成绿色低碳之城,意味着2050年雄安新区要建成零碳城市。探索雄安新区零碳城市建设路径对中国城市主动适应气候变化、实现2060年碳中和目标有示范意义。作者基于自主开发的雄安新区低排放分析模型(LEAP⁃Xiongan),构建25种情景对雄安新区的零碳城市建设路径进行情景分析和展望。研究结果表明:①雄安新区的开发建设必然带来能源消费总量的大幅增加,然而合理的政策组合依然可以确保雄安新区在2030年前实现碳排放达峰。②不同的能源强度政策和能源结构转型政策对零碳城市的路径有显著影响。其中,能源强度政策和能源结构转型政策力度越大,碳排放达峰时间越早,峰值目标越低。③能源强度政策和能源结构转型政策混合实施时,对零碳城市的路径有协同作用。要确保2050年雄安新区基本建成时,实现绿色低碳之城的建设目标,雄安新区单位GDP能源强度、单位能耗CO2排放强度年下降率均保持不低于3.5%的水平。④有多种政策组合情景可以使雄安新区在2050年前实现碳中和;能源强度政策和能源结构调整政策的力度增大,碳中和出现的时间提前。⑤最优情景下,雄安新区各部门的碳排放达峰时间并不一致。工业部门2028年达峰,峰值为62.07万t;其他服务业部门在2044年达峰,峰值为44.02万t。⑥碳汇政策会与能源强度政策和能源结构转型政策深度耦合,对零碳城市路径影响显著。千年秀林和实施白洋淀生态修复政策对雄安新区2050年实现碳中和意义重大。因此,在未来建设中,应该尽快出台雄安新区零碳城市建设总体规划,强化重点部门零碳技术的引进与投资,开展零碳工业试点,完善生态修复相关政策体系。
The Xiongan New Area will be built as a green and low-carbon city by 2050,which means it will become a zero-carbon city by 2050.Exploring the construction pathways of zero-carbon city in the Xiongan New Area is of exemplary significance for cities to actively adapt to climate change and achieve the carbon neutrality target before 2060.Based on the self-developed Xiongan New Area Low-emission Analysis Platform(LEAP-Xiongan) model,this study constructs 25 scenarios to analyze and prospect for the zero-carbon city construction pathways of the Xiongan New Area.The results show that:(1)The development and construction of the Xiongan New Area will inevitably bring a substantial increase in total energy consumption,while a reasonable policy combination can still ensure that the carbon emissions of the Xiongan New Area will peak before 2030.(2)Different policies of energy intensity and energy structure transformation have significant impact on the pathways of zero-carbon cities.Among them,the stronger the energy intensity policy and energy structure transformation policy are,the earlier the peak time of carbon emission reaches,and the lower the peak target is.(3)When the energy intensity policy and energy structure transformation policy are implemented in a mixed manner,there will be synergies on the pathways of zero-carbon cities.To ensure that by 2050,when the Xiongan New Area is basically completed,the goal of building a green and low-carbon city should be achieved,the annual reduction rate of energy consumption per unit of GDP should be no less than 3.5%,and the annual reduction rate of CO;emission intensity per unit of energy consumption should be no less than 3.5%.(4)There are a variety of policy combinations that could make the Xiongan New Area carbon neutral by 2050.Increasing the policy intensity of energy intensity and energy structure adjustment will advance the time of carbon neutrality.(5)Under the optimal scenario,the peak time of carbon emissions of all departments in the Xiongan New Area is not consistent.The industrial sector will reach a peak of 620 700 tons in 2028.Other service sectors will peak in 2044 at 440 200 tons.(6)The carbon sink policy will be deeply coupled with the energy intensity policy and energy structure transformation policy,which will have a significant impact on the zero-carbon city pathways.The policy of implementing the ’Millennium Forest’ project and the ecological restoration of Baiyangdian Lake is of great significance for the Xiongan New Area to achieve carbon neutrality in 2050.Therefore,in the future construction of the Xiongan New Area,the blueprint for its zero-carbon city construction should be issued as soon as possible,the introduction and investment of zerocarbon technologies in the key sectors should be strengthened,zero-carbon industrial pilot projects should be carried out and the policy system for ecological restoration should be improved.
作者
周伟铎
庄贵阳
ZHOU Weiduo;ZHUANG Guiyang(Institute of Ecology and Sustainable Development,Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences,Shanghai 200020,China;Research Institute for Eco-civilization,Chinese Academy of Social Sciences,Beijing 100710,China)
出处
《中国人口·资源与环境》
CSSCI
CSCD
北大核心
2021年第9期122-134,共13页
China Population,Resources and Environment
基金
国家重点研发计划项目“雄安新区气候变化风险评估及三生适应模式研究”(批准号:2018YFA0606304)
2019年上海哲学社会科学项目“长三角区域协同推进大气污染一体化治理研究”(批准号:2019EJL001)。
