摘要
基于2000年1月至2019年12月主要粮食价格及中国和全球地缘政治风险指数,借助带有随机波动性的TVP-VAR模型,实证研究地缘政治风险对中国粮食价格的时变影响。研究结果表明:①粮食价格受地缘政治风险冲击较大。地缘政治风险对粮食价格的冲击持续存在,大豆价格受地缘政治风险冲击最大,其次为玉米和小麦价格,粳稻价格受冲击较小;不同粮食价格在不同时期对冲击的反应存在差异;地缘政治风险冲击在2005年和2015年前后更多表现为正影响;全球地缘政治风险较中国地缘政治风险对粮食价格冲击影响更为剧烈。②“9·11事件”、伊拉克战争和中美贸易争端所处3个时期地缘政治风险对粮食市场具有不同程度冲击。“9·11事件”和中美贸易争端2个时期中国地缘政治风险对玉米价格产生较大负向冲击,伊拉克战争时期中国地缘政治风险对玉米和大豆价格具有正影响;地缘政治风险冲击持续时间较长,一般在1年之后才趋于平稳。
Based on major grain prices and China’s and global geopolitical risk indices from January 2000 to December 2019,this paper employs a TVP-VAR model with random volatility to empirically study the time-varying effects of geopolitical risks on grain prices in China.The results show that grain prices are greatly affected by geopolitical risks.The impact of geopolitical risks on grain prices is persistent:the soybean price is most affected,followed by the corn and wheat prices,and the japonica rice price is less affected.Different grain prices have different responses to the impact of geopolitical risks during different periods.The impact of geopolitical risk showed more of a positive affect around 2005 and 2015.Global geopolitical risks have a more dramatic impact on grain prices than that of China.Geopolitical risks in the three periods in which the September 11 attacks,the Iraq war and the Sino-US trade dispute took place had varying degrees of impact on the grain market.When September 11 attacks and Sino-US trade dispute took place,China’s geopolitical risks have a large negative impact on corn price.During the Iraq War,the geopolitical risks have a positive impact on corn and soybean prices.The impacts of geopolitical risk on grain prices last for a relatively long time,generally levelling off after one year.
作者
李俊茹
石自忠
胡向东
LI J unru;SHI Zhizhong;HU Xiangdong
出处
《华中农业大学学报（社会科学版）》
CSSCI
北大核心
2021年第6期15-26,186,共13页
Journal of Huazhong Agricultural University(Social Sciences Edition)
基金
国家社会科学基金项目“粮改饲种植结构调整对中国饲料粮供需结构冲击研究”(17BJY113)
中国农业科学院科技创新工程项目(ASTIP-IAED-2021-01)。
