摘要
为提高邮轮玻璃幕墙结构的安全管理水平,提出一种基于复合赋权云模型的风险分析方法。通过风险源辨识构造邮轮玻璃幕墙失效故障树,为提高赋权结果的准确性,采用复合赋权法计算风险因素权重,利用层次分析法进行主观赋权,并引入基于相关性指标的权重确定法对主观赋权结果进行修正。再基于正态云模型处理专家语义评价中的模糊性和随机性问题,通过融合语义评估结果得到邮轮玻璃幕墙失效风险等级。结果表明,邮轮玻璃幕墙风险等级为中等,其中持久载荷导致的玻璃胶蠕变失效和船体中垂中拱等变形导致的玻璃疲劳损伤和结构胶腐蚀老化等因素为关键风险因素,在邮轮运营过程中应加强管理。
In order to improve the safety management level of the glass curtain wall structure of cruise ships,a risk analysis method based on combined weighting cloud model is proposed.Firstly,through the risk source identification,the failure tree of the cruise glass curtain wall is constructed.Secondly,in order to improve the accuracy of weighting results,the combined weighting method is adopted to calculate the weight of risk factors,the analytic hierarchy process is used to carry out subjective weighting,and the criteria importance through intercriteria correlation method is introduced to modify the subjective weighting results.Finally,based on the normal cloud model,the fuzziness and randomness problem in expert semantic evaluation are dealt with,and the failure risk level of the cruise glass curtain wall is obtained by integrating the semantic evaluation results.The results show that the risk level of the cruise glass curtain wall is medium,among which the key risk factors are the creep failure of the glass adhesive caused by continuous load,fatigue damage of the glass caused by hull sagging and hogging deformation,and the corrosion aging of the structural adhesive,thus the management should be strengthened during the operation of the cruise ship.
作者
余建星
范海昭
张卫
余杨
陈海成
葛珅玮
YU Jianxing;FAN Haizhao;ZHANG Wei;YU Yang;CHEN Haicheng;GE Shenwei(Tianjin University,State Key Laboratory of Hydraulic Engineering Simulation and Safety,Tianjin 300072,China;Tianjin University,Tianjin Key Laboratory of Port and Ocean Engineering,Tianjin 300072,China;China Merchants Cruise Manufacturing Co.,Ltd.,Nantong 226116,Jiangsu,China)
出处
《船舶工程》
CSCD
北大核心
2021年第8期147-153,共7页
Ship Engineering
基金
国家自然科学基金面上项目(52071234,51879189)
工业和信息化部高技术船舶项目(MC-201917-C09)。
关键词
邮轮玻璃幕墙
层次分析法
基于相关性指标的权重确定法
云模型
风险分析
cruise glass curtain wall
analytic hierarchy process(AHP)
criteria importance through intercriteria correlation(CRITIC)
cloud model
risk analysis
