摘要
政府的各类激励政策(如补贴、免费牌照等)对私家电动汽车的扩散起着重要促进作用.激励政策在逐渐退坡,这对私家电动汽车扩散会产生什么样的影响?考虑电动汽车技术的发展态势,什么样的退坡机制较为合理?本研究以上海为例分析这些问题.本研究基于技术生命周期的概念,利用专利数据分析电动汽车技术成熟度的动态变化,同时厘清促进私家电动汽车扩散的重要因素及其之间的因果联系和反馈环路,在此基础上构建私家电动汽车扩散的系统动力学模型.与以往模型相比,该模型的主要创新点是考虑了技术成熟度的动态变化和激励政策退坡.本研究以上海电动汽车扩散为案例.得益于免费沪牌等激励政策,上海已成为全球电动汽车保有量最多的城市之一.本研究利用上海电动汽车历史销售数据校验所构建的系统动力学模型,在此基础上运用该模型模拟不同激励退坡机制下上海私家电动汽车的扩散场景.研究结果可为电动汽车激励退坡机制的制定提供参考,也可为电动汽车生产厂商提供未来市场发展趋勞的展望.
Various government incentive policies(such as subsidies,free license plates.)play an essential role in the diffusion of private EVs(electric vehicles).How will the fade-out of incentive policies influence the diffusion of EVs?With the technology progress of EVs,what would be the rational fade-out mechanisms?This study aims to explore these questions with the case of Shanghai.The dynamics of EVs'technology maturity is firstly analyzed with the concept of technology life cycle and patent data.Then the causal links and feedback loops among important factors for the diffusion of private Evs are identified,and a SD(system dynamics)model is built for the diffusion of private EVs.Comparing with existing SD models on the diffusion of EVs,the main innovation of our model is that it simultaneously includes the dynamics in EVs'technology maturity and the fade-out of incentive policies.As a case study,this research focuses on the diffusion of private EVs in Shanghai.Shanghai is one of the cities with the largest number of EVs in the world,due to various incentive policies,especially the policy of free license plates for EVs.The SD model developed in this study is verified with the historical data on diffusion of EVs in Shanghai,and then the SD model is used to simulate the diffusion of private EVs in Shanghai with different mechanisms of fade-out of incentive policies.This study provides some policy implications for designing appropriate fade-out of incentive policies,and also provides visions on future EV market which might be helpful for EV producers.
作者
沈峰
马铁驹
赵兴荣
许诺愉
冯净冰
马也
SHEN Feng;MA Tie-ju;ZHAO Xing-rong;XU Nuo-yu;FENG Jing-bing;MA Ye(School of Business,East China University of Science and Technology,Shanghai 200237,China)
出处
《管理科学学报》
CSSCI
CSCD
北大核心
2021年第9期79-104,共26页
Journal of Management Sciences in China
基金
国家自然科学基金资助项目(71571069,71961137012,71874055)。
关键词
电动汽车扩散
激励政策退坡
系统动力学
diffusion of electric vehicles
fade-out of incentive policies
system dynamics
