摘要
针对输气管道沿线地区等级发生变化带来的风险变化,依据管道完整性管理原则,建立了一套完整用于地区等级升级后的定量风险评价技术。采用蒙特卡洛方法计算管道极限状态下的失效概率,通过Stephens危害模型计算因热辐射造成的失效后果,并研究了个人风险和社会风险的可接受准则。通过实例分析结果表明:地区升级后大孔泄漏失效概率为8.61×10^(-5),管道破裂失效概率为5.77×10^(-6),社会风险值落在可接受区,但与合理可行区和可接受区的边界线距离较近,通过可行性分析,应采取盖板涵洞方式减缓风险。
Focusing on the risk change caused by the region level change along the gas transportation pipeline area,according to the principle of pipeline integrity management,a complete set of quantitative risk assessment technology for region after upgrading is established.The failure probability is calculated with the Monte Carlo method for the pipeline under the ultimate state.The failure consequences caused by thermal radiation is calculated with the Stephens hazard model.The acceptable criteria of personal risk and social risk are also studied.The analysis results of the experimental case show that the failure probability of macropore leakage and pipeline breakage is 8.61×10^(-5) and 5.77×10^(-6) respectively after the region is upgraded.The social risk value is within the acceptable range,but the boundary line between the acceptable and reasonable area is close to each other.Through feasibility analysis,it is found slab culvert hole should be applied to reduce the risk.
作者
韩帅
郭辉
李跃杰
梁昌晶
Han Shuai;Guo Hui;Li Yuejie;Liang Changjing(Sino-Pipeline International Company Limited Myanmar-China Oil&Gas Pipeline Project,Mandalay Operation Office,Beijing,100029,China;No.1 Oil Production Plant of Huabei Oilfield Company,CNPC,Renqiu,062552,China;Sinopec Guangyuan Natural Gas Purification Co.Ltd.,Guangyuan,628000,China)
出处
《石油化工自动化》
CAS
2021年第6期53-56,共4页
Automation in Petro-chemical Industry
关键词
输气管道
定量风险
失效概率
失效后果
可接受准则
gas transportation pipeline
quantitative risk
failure probability
failure consequences
acceptable criteria
