摘要
为了定量评价长江中下游近60年来水文情势变化,运用Mann-Kendall非参数检验、均值差异T检验法对长江中下游宜昌、汉口和大通3个水文站1954~2016年径流量进行趋势和突变检验,采用累积量斜率变化率法,定量评估长江中下游气候变化和人类活动对径流量变化的影响,并运用RVA法对径流量突变前后32个水文指标改变度进行定量评价。研究结果表明:(1)长江中下游宜昌站和汉口站年径流量呈减少趋势,大通站年径流量总体呈增加趋势,总体变化趋势不显著,径流突变点分别发生在2002、2005和2006年,总体上与三峡水库蓄水时间相符;(2)三峡水库蓄水主要影响长江中下游径流年内变化,尤其是对年极值影响最大,且随着距离水库的增加,影响减弱;(3)宜昌、汉口和大通水文站水文改变度分别为55%、46%和32%,长江中下游河流水文情势总体上属于中高度改变;(4)气候变化占对中下游径流量改变贡献程度的70%左右,人类用水以及水库蓄水等人类活动贡献程度约占30%,气候变化是导致长江中下游年径流量发生改变的主导因素。
To quantitatively evaluate the hydrological regime changes in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River during the past 60 years, the trend and mutation of runoff were analyzed by the Mann-Kendall nonparametric test and mean difference T test at the Yichang, Hankou and Datong gauge station from 1954 to 2016. Without considering the impact of evapotranspiration, the slope change ratio of cumulative quantity(SCRCQ) was adopted to estimate the impacts of precipitation and human activities. The hydrologic regime alteration degree of 32 hydrological indicators were finally studied by the range of variability approach(RVA).The results showed that :(1) there was no significant trend change of annual runoff in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River, and the abrupt change was consistent with the impoundment time of the Three Gorges Reservoir(TGR);(2) the impoundment of the Three Gorges Reservoir mainly affects the annual variation of runoff in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River, especially the annual maximum of the runoff, and the impact degree decreases with the increase of distance from the reservoir;(3) the hydrological alteration degrees of Yichang, Hankou and Datong hydrologic stations were 55%, 46% and 32% respectively, and the hydrological regime of the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River belonged to medium-high alteration generally;(4) the precipitation of climate change is the leading factor resulting to the change of annual runoff in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River, and its contribution degree accounts for about 70%, while the contribution degree of water draw, water conservancy projects and other human activities accounts for about 30%.
作者
郭文献
金耀广
李越
史名洋
王鸿翔
GUO Wen-xian;JIN Yao-guang;LI Yue;SHI Ming-yang;WANG Hong-xiang(North China University of Water Resources and Electric Power,School of Water Conservancy,Zhengzhou 450045,China)
出处
《长江流域资源与环境》
CAS
CSSCI
CSCD
北大核心
2021年第10期2464-2470,共7页
Resources and Environment in the Yangtze Basin
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(51679090,51609085,51779094)
2016年度河南省高校科技创新人才支持计划(16HASTIT024)
2016年河南省科技攻关项目(162102110015)
华北水利水电大学研究生教育创新计划基金项目(YK2020-05)
贵州省水利厅2020年度水利科技项目(KT202008)。
关键词
径流量
气候变化
人类活动
长江中下游
水文情势
runoff
climate change
human activities
the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River
hydrological regimes
