摘要
“双碳”目标是中国当前与未来经济社会发展的重要指引。通过构建动态多区域可计算一般均衡模型,重点量化分析工业对“双碳”目标的贡献及其实现路径。研究发现:第一,中国总体上能够于2030年前实现碳达峰,对应的峰值为120亿吨左右,但仅依靠能源效率和温和的绿色技术进步不足以实现碳中和目标,还需要辅之以碳税和碳排放权交易等市场化工具。第二,在强政策情景下,工业整体于2029年实现碳达峰,2060年相对于2020年碳排放下降61%,其实际减排量占减排总量的55%左右。将高耗能行业纳入碳排放权交易市场后,中国提前于2028年实现碳达峰,对应的峰值更低,且推动智能化转型能够增强这一效应。第三,对工业具体行业的模拟结果显示,“双碳”目标下传统能源部门受到的冲击最大,多数制造行业产出受到负面冲击,各区域之间以及内部呈明显分化趋势。从区域来看,东部地区与较早参与碳排放权交易试点的省份将率先实现碳达峰,是全国碳减排的主要贡献来源。第四,实现“双碳”目标,除必要的能源效率、绿色技术进步外,还需要对碳排放权交易市场制定逐年提升的碳价,短期内征收碳税的减碳效应更加显著,但长期内构建碳排放权交易市场的效果更为突出。预计2060年全国碳价超过2000元/吨,且需要针对不同区域实施差别性碳定价。为推动实现“双碳”目标,在加大节能增效力度的同时,应大力发展绿色制造、加强绿色自主技术创新、加快构建新型电力系统、推动工业智能化转型,根据各地区的经济发展阶段与环境承载能力,有序扩大碳排放权交易市场覆盖面。
The target of“double carbon”is a core guide for China's current and future economic and social development.By constructing a dynamic multi-regional computable general equilibrium model,this paper focuses on the quantitative analysis of the contribution of industry to the“double carbon”goal and its realization path.It is found that China can achieve the carbon peak by 2030,with the corresponding peak of about 12 billion tons,but relying only on energy efficiency and mild green technology progress is not enough to achieve the carbon neutrality goal,which needs to be supplemented by market means such as carbon tax and carbon emission trading.Under the strong policy scenario,the industry as a whole can reach the carbon peak in 2029,and the carbon emission in 2060 will decrease by 61%compared with that in 2020,and its actual emission reduction accounts for about 55%of the total emission reduction.Considering the inclusion of high energy consuming industries into the carbon trading market,China will achieve the carbon peak in 2028,with a lower corresponding peak,and promoting intelligent transformation can continue to enhance this effect.The simulation results of specific industries show that under the“double carbon”goal,the traditional energy sectors are the most impacted,the output of most manufacturing industries is negatively impacted,and there is an obvious differentiated trend between and within regions.From a regional perspective,the eastern region and the provinces that participated in the carbon trading pilot earlier will take the lead in realizing the carbon peak,which is the main contributor of national carbon emission reduction.In order to achieve the goal of“double carbon”,in addition to the necessary progress in energy efficiency and green technology,it is also necessary to formulate a carbon price for the carbon trading market to increase year by year.The carbon reduction effect of levying carbon tax in the short term is more significant,but the effect of building a carbon trading market in the long term is more prominent.It is estimated that the national carbon price will exceed 2000 yuan/ton in 2060,and differential carbon pricing needs to be implemented for different regions.This paper holds that in order to achieve the“double carbon”goal,while increasing energy conservation and efficiency,policymakers need to vigorously develop green manufacturing,strengthen green independent technological innovation,accelerate the construction of new power system,promote industrial intelligent transformation,and orderly expand the coverage of carbon emission trading market according to the economic development stage and environmental carrying capacity of each region.
出处
《改革》
CSSCI
北大核心
2021年第12期30-44,共15页
Reform
基金
研究阐释党的十九届五中全会精神国家社会科学基金重大项目“推进新型工业化与经济体系优化升级研究”(21ZDA021)
中国社会科学院登峰战略优势学科(产业经济学)项目。
关键词
“双碳”目标
碳排放权交易市场
碳税
碳定价
“double carbon”target
carbon emission trading market
carbon tax
carbon pricing
